Table 2.
Comparison between current trends in butterfly abundance, predicted trends in abundance for 2071–2100 according to the regression models from this study and predicted trend in the distribution for northwestern Europe according to the climate atlas by Settele et al. 2008 (BAMBU scenario for 2080)
| Species | Current trend 1990–2004a | Trend prediction 2071–2100a | Climate atlas prediction 2080b | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernation stagec | ||||
| Adult | ||||
| Aglais io | Decline | Decline | Stable | |
| Aglais urticae | Decline | Decline | Decline | |
| Gonepteryx rhamni | Decline | Decline | Stable | |
| Polygonia c-album | Increase | Stable | Stable | |
| Egg | ||||
| Argynnis niobe | Decline | Decline | Stable | |
| Hesperia comma | Decline | Decline | Stable | |
| Favonius quercus | Decline | Increase | Stable | |
| Plebejus argus | Decline | Decline | Stable | |
| Satyrium ilicis | Decline | Decline | Stable | |
| Thymelicus lineola | Decline | Decline | Stable | |
| Larvae | ||||
| Aphantopus hyperantus | Stable | Decline | Decline | |
| Argynnis aglaja | Decline | Decline | Decline | |
| Aricia agestis | Decline | Decline | Stable | |
| Boloria selene | Decline | Decline | Decline | |
| Carterocephalus palaemon | Stable | Stable | Stable | |
| Coenonympha pamphilus | Increase | Increase | Stable | |
| Hipparchia semele | Decline | Decline | Stable | |
| Hipparchia statilinus | Decline | Increase | Increase | |
| Issoria lathonia | Decline | Decline | Increase | |
| Lasiommata megera | Decline | Stable | Stable | |
| Limenitis camilla | Decline | Increase | Increase | |
| Lycaena phlaeas | Stable | Increase | Stable | |
| Lycaena tityrus | Decline | Decline | Increase | |
| Maniola jurtina | Stable | Increase | Stable | |
| Melitaea athalia | Decline | NA | Increase | |
| Ochlodes sylvanus | Decline | Increase | Stable | |
| Polyommatus icarus | Increase | Increase | Stable | |
| Pyronia tithonus | Decline | Decline | Increase | |
| Thymelicus sylvestris | Decline | Decline | Stable | |
| Pupae | ||||
| Anthocharis cardamines | Stable | Increase | Decline | |
| Araschnia levana | Stable | Decline | Stable | |
| Callophrys rubi | Stable | Decline | Stable | |
| Celastrina argiolus | Stable | Increase | Stable | |
| Leptidea sinapis | Increase | Increase | Increase | |
| Papilio machaon | Increase | Increase | Increase | |
| Pararge aegeria | Increase | Increase | Stable | |
| Pieris brassicae | Decline | Decline | Stable | |
| Pieris napi | Stable | Increase | Stable | |
| Pieris rapae | Decline | Decline | Stable | |
| Pyrgus malvae | Decline | Decline | Stable | |
NA, weather variables were not significant in the regression model
aPopulation trends reflect significant differences (P < 0.05) in comparison with the initial population index of 2 in 1992
bClimate atlas predictions reflect regional range shifts (increase = expansion; decline = shrinkage)
cSpecies are grouped according to overwintering stage