Table 3.
Multivariate Caries Risk Models for Identification of Numbers of Lesions Progressing at 12 and 24 Months According to 2 Outcome Criteria
| Model (no dmfs/DMFS) | Model (add dmfs/DMFS at end) | Model (start with dmfs/DMFS then add other variables) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Examination Period | Count (95% CI) | p-value | Count (95% CI) | p-value | Count (95% CI) | ||
| 12-month (ICDAS ≥ 3) | Child had teeth filled | No | 1.52 (1.15, 2.01) | 0.0003 | 1.58 (1.20, 2.09) | 0.0021 | 1.63 (1.23, 2.14) | 0.0042 |
| Yes | 2.57 (2.12, 3.10) | 2.48 (2.05, 3.00) | 2.46 (2.04, 2.98) | |||||
| Child has been to the dentist: | Last 3 months | 3.10 (2.42, 3.98) | 0.0000 | 2.97 (2.32, 3.82) | 0.0000 | 3.01 (2.35, 3.86) | 0.0000 | |
| 3-6 months | 1.70 (1.29, 2.25) | 1.73 (1.31, 2.28) | 1.75 (1.33, 2.30) | |||||
| 6+ months | 1.46 (1.13, 1.87) | 1.51 (1.18, 1.94) | 1.52 (1.19, 1.95) | |||||
| Child drinks soda between meals | No | 1.60 (1.17, 2.19) | 0.0090 | 1.62 (1.19, 2.20) | 0.0119 | 1.63 (1.20, 2.22) | 0.0104 | |
| Yes | 2.44 (2.06, 2.89) | 2.43 (2.05, 2.87) | 2.46 (2.08, 2.90) | |||||
| CG believes child has ‘very good’ dental health | No | 2.41 (1.96, 2.96) | 0.0036 | 2.31 (1.87, 2.84) | 0.0277 | 2.33 (1.89, 2.87) | 0.0287 | |
| Yes | 1.62 (1.25, 2.09) | 1.70 (1.32, 2.19) | 1.72 (1.34, 2.21) | |||||
| Age | 0.93 (0.87, 0.98) | 0.0103 | 0.95 (0.89, 1.00) | 0.0717 | ||||
| For baseline dmfs/DMFS (ICDAS ≥ 3) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) | 0.0026 | 1.02 (1.01, 1.04) | 0.0004 | ||||
| 12-month (ICDAS ≥ 1) | Child had teeth filled | No | 6.16 (5.22, 7.27) | 0.0227 | 6.35 (5.39, 7.48) | 0.0991 | ||
| Yes | 7.70 (6.84, 8.65) | 7.47 (6.64, 8.41) | ||||||
| Child has been to the dentist: | Last 3 months | 8.42 (7.08, 10.00) | 0.0122 | 8.15 (6.86, 9.69) | 0.0422 | 8.51 (7.23, 10.02) | 0.0367 | |
| 3-6 months | 6.11 (5.11, 7.30) | 6.15 (5.15, 7.34) | 6.56 (5.55, 7.75) | |||||
| 6+ months | 6.35 (5.50, 7.34) | 6.52 (5.65, 7.52) | 6.64 (5.80, 7.61) | |||||
| Child uses additional fluoride products at home | No | 7.54 (6.62, 8.58) | 0.0496 | 7.53 (6.63, 8.56) | 0.0486 | |||
| Yes | 6.29 (5.42, 7.30) | 6.30 (5.43, 7.30) | ||||||
| CG believes child has ‘very good’ dental health | No | 8.72 (7.74, 9.83) | 0.0000 | 8.46 (7.50, 9.54) | 0.0000 | 9.15 (8.22, 10.18) | 0.0000 | |
| Yes | 5.43 (4.60, 6.42) | 5.61 (4.75, 6.62) | 5.64 (4.80, 6.63) | |||||
| For baseline dmfs/DMFS (ICDAS ≥ 3) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) | 0.0021 | 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) | 0.0009 | ||||
| 24-month (ICDAS ≥ 3) | CG supervises child’s toothbrushing | Regularly | 3.51 (2.78, 4.43) | 0.0437 | 3.47 (2.75, 4.38) | 0.0657 | 3.68 (2.94, 4.61) | 0.0380 |
| Occasionally | 3.06 (2.43, 3.84) | 3.11 (2.47, 3.90) | 3.42 (2.77, 4.23) | |||||
| No | 2.07 (1.33, 3.21) | 2.11 (1.37, 3.27) | 2.19 (1.44, 3.32) | |||||
| CG received referral for child | No | 3.45 (2.56, 4.66) | 0.0473 | 3.56 (2.64, 4.80) | 0.0295 | |||
| Yes | 2.29 (1.70, 3.09) | 2.26 (1.67, 3.05) | ||||||
| CG followed up on referral | No | 2.14 (1.56, 2.92) | 0.0101 | 2.15 (1.58, 2.93) | 0.0096 | |||
| Yes | 3.70 (2.75, 4.97) | 3.74 (2.79, 5.02) | ||||||
| Child had teeth filled | No | 2.32 (1.74, 3.09) | 0.0036 | 2.40 (1.80, 3.19) | 0.0109 | 2.50 (1.91, 3.28) | 0.0031 | |
| Yes | 3.40 (2.70, 4.29) | 3.35 (2.66, 4.23) | 3.65 (2.93, 4.55) | |||||
| Child has been to the dentist: | Last 3 months | 4.23 (3.26, 5.50) | 0.0000 | 4.15 (3.20, 5.38) | 0.0000 | 4.34 (3.38, 5.59) | 0.0000 | |
| 3-6 months | 2.43 (1.82, 3.23) | 2.48 (1.86, 3.29) | 2.67 (2.03, 3.51) | |||||
| 6+ months | 2.16 (1.63, 2.87) | 2.22 (1.67, 2.94) | 2.38 (1.82, 3.10) | |||||
| CG believes child has ‘very good’ dental health | No | 3.51 (2.77, 4.44) | 0.0004 | 3.42 (2.70, 4.32) | 0.0039 | |||
| Yes | 2.25 (1.70, 2.97) | 2.35 (1.78, 3.11) | ||||||
| Race | Black | 3.08 (1.90, 5.00) | 0.0203 | 3.01 (1.86, 4.87) | 0.0163 | 3.16 (1.95, 5.11) | 0.0032 | |
| Other | 3.90 (2.94, 5.18) | 4.01 (3.02, 5.31) | 4.45 (3.42, 5.78) | |||||
| Unknown | 1.99 (1.23, 3.21) | 2.06 (1.28, 3.32) | 2.17 (1.36, 3.47) | |||||
| White | 2.60 (2.14, 3.16) | 2.60 (2.14, 3.16) | 2.73 (2.28, 3.28) | |||||
| For baseline dmfs/DMFS (ICDAS ≥ 3) | 1.02 (1.00, 1.03) | 0.0205 | 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) | 0.0006 | ||||
| 24-month (ICDAS ≥ 1) | CG followed up on referral | No | 7.15 (6.16, 8.31) | 0.0420 | 7.27 (6.27, 8.44) | 0.0818 | ||
| Yes | 8.61 (7.62, 9.72) | 8.52 (7.55, 9.62) | ||||||
| Child had teeth filled | No | 6.98 (5.95, 8.19) | 0.0140 | 7.19 (6.13, 8.43) | 0.0572 | |||
| Yes | 8.82 (7.86, 9.89) | 8.63 (7.69, 9.68) | ||||||
| Child has been to the dentist: | Last 3 months | 9.48 (8.00, 11.24) | 0.0117 | 9.25 (7.80, 10.95) | 0.0325 | |||
| 3-6 months | 6.73 (5.66, 8.01) | 6.82 (5.74, 8.10) | ||||||
| 6+ months | 7.56 (6.60, 8.67) | 7.74 (6.76, 8.86) | ||||||
| Child uses additional fluoride products at home | No | 8.61 (7.59, 9.76) | 0.0376 | 8.63 (7.62, 9.77) | 0.0382 | |||
| Yes | 7.15 (6.20, 8.26) | 7.19 (6.23, 8.28) | ||||||
| CG believes child has ‘very good’ dental health | No | 9.11 (8.07, 10.30) | 0.0015 | 8.90 (7.87, 10.06) | 0.0105 | 9.62 (8.69, 10.65) | 0.0011 | |
| Yes | 6.76 (5.79, 7.88) | 6.97 (5.98, 8.12) | 7.13 (6.15, 8.27) | |||||
| For baseline dmfs/DMFS (ICDAS ≥ 3) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.02) | 0.0061 | 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) | 0.0001 | ||||