Table 1.

Logistic regression summary statistics and first ten predictors for models of BTB in 1997^a

Statistic	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3
Variables included in analysis	All	Only global variables	All
Distance to BTB in 1995	No	No	Yes
Variables available to model	96	80	97
Variables included in model	54	70	85
Correct absence %	83.67	82.05	85.00
Correct presence %	84.76	81.11	82.80
Overall correct %	84.15	81.64	83.90
Kappa	0.68	0.63	0.67
Predictor 1	VPD P2b,d	VPD P2b,d	Distance to BTB in 1995
Predictor 2	Longitude	Longitude	VPD mind
Predictor 3	VPD D/V1b,d	VPD mean	Cattle density
Predictor 4	VPD P1b,d	VPD P1b,d	Badger presence (10 km)
Predictor 5	Air temperature A1b,c	VPD varianceb,d	Human population density
Predictor 6	Air temperature rangec	Middle infra-red P3b,c	Longitude
Predictor 7	Cattle density	Air temperature A1b,c	Potential evapotranspirationd
Predictor 8	Air temperature A3b,c	Air temperature rangeb,c	VPD P1b,d
Predictor 9	Middle infra-red P3b,c	Distance to roads	Badger (distance)
Predictor 10	VPD meand	Air temperature A3b,c	VPD A3b,d

^aAbbreviations: 0, 1, 2 and 3 refer to the Fourier-fitted, annual, bi-annual and tri-annual cycles; A, amplitude; BTB, bovine tuberculosis; D/V, proportion of total variance associated with each harmonic/total variance; P, phase; VPD, vapour pressure deficit.

^bFourier timing and/or seasonality variables, highlighted in bold.

^cTemperature variables.

^dWater/moisture variables.