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. 2011 Sep 6;103(18):1387–1396. doi: 10.1093/jnci/djr283

Figure 2.

Figure 2

Kaplan–Meier estimates of cumulative risk (%) of histologically confirmed cervical carcinoma in situ (CIS) and invasive cancer (ICC) during 16-year follow-up by type-specific human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The cumulative risk by various HPV infection status and age at study entry were derived by using Kaplan–Meier method. A) Cumulative risk by type-specific HPV infection at baseline examination: 13.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.5% to 28.0%) for HPV16 infection, 10.3% (95% CI = 4.9% to 21.7%) for HPV58 infection, 4.0% (95% CI = 2.6% to 6.2%) for carcinogenic types (without HPV16 and HPV58) infection, 2.1% (95% CI = 0.7% to 6.6%) for probably and/or possibly carcinogenic types (without carcinogenic types) infection, 1.1% (95% CI = 0.4% to 2.8%) for other types infection, and 0.26% (95% CI = 0.17% to 0.41%) for HPV-negative women. B) Cumulative by HPV infection of carcinogenic types at baseline and second examinations: 12.4% (95% CI = 8.0% to 19.2%) for persistent of carcinogenic types, 0.77% (95% CI = 0.19% to 3.1%) for clearance of carcinogenic types, 0.0% for purely acquisition of carcinogenic types, and 0.14% (95% CI = 0.07% to 0.3%) for persistent negative. Asterisk indicates there were no cases of CIS or cancer among women with pure acquisition of carcinogenic HPV types in the absence of persistence or clearance of other types. C) Cumulative risk by age at study entry for persistent carcinogenic type (on a type-specific basis): 5.5% (95% CI = 1.7% to 17.7%) for women aged 30–44 years, 14.4% (95% CI = 6.9% to 30.4%) for women aged 45–54 years, 18.1% (95% CI = 9.8% to 33.3%) for women aged 55–65 years.