Table 2. Population dynamics estimates of the subtype B epidemic among MSM in Hong Kong.
Evolution clock model | Growth model | Rate of evolution(µ, site−1 year−1) | Date of origin (tMRCA) | |||
B (MSM-HK) | B (Cluster 1) | B (Cluster 2) | B (Cluster 3) | |||
Constant | 2.01×10−3 | 1979 (1969–1987) | 2000 (1997–2002) | 1985 (1977–1992) | 2000 (1997–2003) | |
Strict | Exponential | 1.82×10−3 | 1975 (1964–1986) | 1998 (1995–2001) | 1983 (1974–1991) | 1999 (1995–2002) |
Logistic | 1.63×10−3 | 1977 (1965–1987) | 1997 (1993–2001) | 1981 (1970–1990) | 1998 (1993–2002) | |
Skyline | 1.94×10−3 | 1982 (1975–1989) | 2000 (1997–2002) | 1985 (1979–1991) | 2000 (1997–2003) | |
Constant | 2.50×10−3 | 1945 (1875–1988) | 1998 (1991–2003) | 1989 (1973–2000) | 2000 (1993–2005) | |
Relaxed Exponential | Exponential | 2.39×10−3 | 1977 (1960–1990) | 1994 (1985–2001) | 1989 (1978–1998) | 1999 (1993–2004) |
Logistic | 2.28×10−3 | 1984 (1974–1993) | 1995 (1988–2001) | 1989 (1980–1997) | 1998 (1992–2003) | |
Skyline | 2.53×10−3 | 1987 (1978–1994) | 1996 (1990–2002) | 1991 (1985–1996) | 1999 (1994–2004) |