Table 2.
Calculation example of predicted 10 year treatment effect for two patient scenarios
| Variables | Scenario 1* | Scenario 2† | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Framingham based | Reynolds based | Optimal fit model | Framingham based | Reynolds based | Optimal fit model | ||
| Baseline 10 year risk for cardiovascular disease (%) | 16 | 13.9 | 16.6 | 2 | 4.3 | 2.6 | |
| Residual risk if treated with rosuvastatin for 10 years (%) | 9 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 | |
| Predicted absolute risk reduction (%) | 7 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | |
| NNT (patients with similar characteristics) (%) | 14 | 16 | 9 | 111 | 53 | 100 | |
NNT=number needed to treat.
Following values were the same in both scenarios: total cholesterol level 4.8 mmol /L, high density lipoprotein cholesterol level 1.3 mmol/L, low density lipoprotein cholesterol level 2.8 mmol/L, high sensitivity C reactive protein level 4.3 mg/L, and 134 mm Hg systolic blood pressure.
*Male non-smoker aged 60 years with family history of premature coronary heart disease and taking blood pressure lowering drugs.
‡Female smoker aged 55 years with no family history of premature coronary heart disease and not taking blood pressure lowering drugs.