Figure 1. A schematic of the convolution-based method for real-time estimation of IHP and IAR from hospitalization and serial cross-sectional serologic data.

(A) The hospitalization (top) and seroprevalence (bottom) curves are both delayed and scaled transformations of the incidence curve (middle). (B) By performing the reverse transformations, we can use hospitalization and seroprevalence data to reconstruct incidence and estimate IHP and IAR in real time.