Figure 10. Model identification from snapshot data.

Using a heuristic method, a nonlinear SIR model for brucellosis transmission within a herd has been developed, using snapshot herd-size and seroprevalence data from several West-African countries as well as from the Jackson Bison Herd (JBH). The ability of the model to predict seroprevalence vs. herd size is shown (top). Also, for two non-intensive farming districts in Guinea which have similar herd sizes, the amount of inter-herd interaction and hence the comparative rate of outside-herd infection can roughly be guessed, from a description of the prevalent agricultural practices. The model is shown to provide a better indication of prevalence, once this variation is accounted for (bottom).