Table 1.
Sensitivity and specificity (with cut offs of 0.5, 0.6, and 0.7), receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic produced from each of 20 data subsets
| Model | Sensitivity (No of deaths correct/200 patients)
|
Specificity (No of survivors correct/250 patients)
|
ROC (%) | χ2; P value | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | ||||
| 1 | 70.5 (141) | 57.0 (114) | 44.5 (89) | 80.0 (200) | 86.4 (216) | 92.4 (231) | 83.0 | 3.85; 0.87 | |
| 2 | 71.0 (142) | 60.5 (121) | 48.0 (96) | 79.2 (198) | 87.2 (218) | 93.6 (234) | 83.7 | 4.86; 0.77 | |
| 3* | 69.0 (138) | 54.0 (108) | 33.5 (67) | 71.2 (178) | 82.8 (207) | 92.0 (230) | 79.5 | 13.30; 0.10 | |
| 4 | 76.0 (152) | 62.0 (124) | 51.0 (102) | 80.4 (201) | 87.2 (218) | 92.4 (231) | 84.7 | 4.22; 0.84 | |
| 5 | 74.0 (148) | 65.0 (130) | 49.5 (99) | 81.2 (203) | 87.2 (218) | 92.0 (230) | 84.8 | 5.68; 0.68 | |
| 6* | 72.0 (144) | 60.5 (121) | 48.5 (97) | 80.0 (200) | 88.0 (220) | 92.8 (232) | 83.9 | 7.26; 0.51 | |
| 7 | 72.5 (145) | 61.0 (122) | 48.5 (97) | 82.0 (205) | 86.8 (217) | 91.6 (229) | 84.0 | 7.71; 0.46 | |
| 8 | 73.0 (146) | 61.5 (123) | 50.5 (101) | 83.6 (209) | 88.0 (220) | 92.8 (232) | 85.2 | 6.82; 0.56 | |
| 9* | 73.0 (146) | 61.5 (123) | 42.5 (85) | 78.4 (196) | 84.0 (210) | 91.6 (229) | 82.0 | 4.96; 0.76 | |
| 10 | 73.0 (146) | 64.0 (128) | 55.0 (110) | 83.2 (208) | 87.6 (219) | 94.0 (235) | 82.0 | 6.6; 0.58 | |
| 11 | 76.5 (153) | 66.0 (132) | 54.0 (108) | 82.4 (206) | 85.6 (214) | 91.2 (228) | 85.2 | 11.08; 0.2 | |
| 12 | 70.5 (141) | 57.0 (114) | 44.5 (89) | 80.0 (200) | 86.4 (216) | 92.4 (231) | 82.3 | 3.85; 0.87 | |
| 13* | 73.0 (146) | 62.5 (125) | 44.0 (88) | 78.4 (196) | 85.6 (214) | 92.8 (232) | 82.5 | 6.02; 0.64 | |
| 14 | 75.5 (151) | 61.0 (122) | 51.5 (103) | 80.4 (201) | 86.4 (216) | 91.6 (229) | 84.9 | 4.23; 0.84 | |
| 15 | 72.0 (144) | 58.5 (117) | 47.0 (94) | 78.4 (196) | 86.8 (217) | 92.4 (231) | 82.7 | 4.08; 0.85 | |
| 16 | 72.0 (144) | 57.0 (114) | 46.5 (93) | 80.4 (201) | 86.4 (216) | 92.4 (231) | 82.8 | 2.75; 0.95 | |
| 17 | 76.5 (153) | 65.5 (131) | 56.0 (112) | 80.8 (202) | 88.0 (220) | 92.0 (230) | 82.8 | 8.95; 0.35 | |
| 18† | 73.0 (146) | 65.5 (130) | 52.0 (104) | 82.4 (206) | 87.6 (219) | 93.6 (234) | 85.6 | 5.92; 0.66 | |
| 19 | 70.5 (141) | 58.0 (116) | 46.0 (92) | 78.0 (195) | 84.4 (211) | 92.0 (230) | 82.4 | 8.83; 0.36 | |
| 20* | 76.0 (152) | 65.5 (131) | 53.0 (106) | 80.4 (201) | 87.2 (218) | 93.2 (233) | 85.1 | 2.56; 0.96 | |
*
Data subsets did not include all five variables selected in other 15 data subsets.
†
Model used for validation study.