Table 2.

Logistic Regression Model Predicting 28-Day Mortality

Nonvariceal hemorrhage				Variceal hemorrhage
	Unadjusted odds ratio	Adjusted odds ratioa	95% Confidence interval	Unadjusted odds ratio	Adjusted odds ratioa	95% Confidence interval
Year of presentation
1999	1.00	1.00			1.00	1.00
2000	1.00	0.98	0.94–1.01	1.02	1.02	0.87–1.20
2001	1.01	0.97	0.93–1.00	1.02	1.02	0.86–1.20
2002	1.01	0.95	0.92–0.99	0.98	0.98	0.83–1.15
2003	0.99	0.94	0.90–0.97	0.94	0.95	0.80–1.11
2004	0.95	0.90	0.86–0.93	0.88	0.88	0.75–1.03
2005	0.93	0.89	0.86–0.92	0.85	0.83	0.70–0.98
2006	0.92	0.85	0.82–0.88	0.80	0.79	0.67–0.94
2007	0.87	0.80	0.77–0.83	0.81	0.80	0.67–0.94
Age, y
<30	1.00	1.00		1.00	1.00
30–59	10.09	7.22	6.37–8.19	1.93	1.92	1.44–2.55
60–79	30.04	16.80	14.84–19.02	2.51	2.37	1.77–3.17
≥80	55.62	34.14	30.15–38.65	3.26	3.05	2.22–4.20
Sex
Male	1.00	1.00		1.00	1.00
Female	1.20	1.01	0.99–1.03	1.01	0.96	0.88–1.04
Charlson index
No comorbidity	1.00	1.00		1.00	1.00
Single comorbidity	2.16	1.70	1.66–1.74	0.99	1.17	1.07–1.27
Multiple or serious comorbidity	5.64	4.37	4.28–4.47	1.31	1.37	1.18–1.58

NOTE. Linked HES/ONS mortality records are currently provided on a provisional basis. An issue has arisen whereby a small number of mortality records may have been incorrectly rejected. The algorithm that links HES to ONS mortality is currently being amended to rectify this issue, which affects approximately 1000 mortality records or about 0.02% of the total.

^aAdjusted for all variables in Table.