Table 2.
Standardized coefficients from ordinary least squares regressions predicting HIV outcomes, sub-Saharan Africa, 2001-2009
| Covariates | (1) Change in HIV prevalence 2001-09 |
(2) Change in HIV incidence 2001-09 |
(3) ARV coverage 2009 |
(4) PMTCT coverage 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population-related variables | ||||
| Population policy indicator | -0.102 | -0.533* | 0.303* | 0.304** |
| IPPF affiliate founded before 1986 | -0.468* | -0.025 | -0.009 | -0.050 |
| General controls | ||||
| GDP per capita | -0.027 | -0.671** | 0.271* | 0.347** |
| Cultural fractionalization | -0.196 | 0.120 | -0.261 * | -0.124 |
| Former British colony | 0.330 | 0.454* | -0.214 | 0.202† |
| HIV-related controls | ||||
| PEPFAR focus country | 0.365† | -0.187 | 0.349* | 0.301** |
| Global Fund HIV disbursements | 0.089 | -0.527* | 0.373** | 0.359** |
| Antiretroviral coverage | -0.361 | 0.455† | ||
| Epidemic peaked prior to 1999 | -0.549** | -0.391 * | ||
| N | 34 | 32 | 42 | 41 |
| R2 | 47.9% | 46.4% | 56.1 % | 72.9% |
Note: Significance indicated by † p < 0.10 level; * p < 0.05 level; ** p < 0.01 level, *** p < 0.001 level
Countries missing from Model 1: Cape Verde, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Liberia, Mauritius, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia and Sudan
Countries missing from Model 2: Burundi, Cape Verde, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Liberia, Madagascar, Mauritania, Mauritius, Sao Tome and Principe, Somalia and Sudan
Countries missing from Model 3: Cape Verde, Comoros, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe, and Somalia Countries missing from Model 4: Cape Verde, Comoros, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Sao Tome and Principe, and Somalia