Table 7. Sensitivity analysis: descriptive statistics for 1,000 simulated outbreaks under different model assumptions and datasets.
Model 1 – dataset A | Model 3 – dataset A | Model 2 – dataset B | |||||||
Parameter | median | 2.5th percentile | 97.5th percentile | median | 2.5th percentile | 97.5th percentile | median | 2.5th percentile | 97.5th percentile |
Duration (days) | 79 | 72 | 90 | 86 | 42 | 400 | 135 | 100 | 400 |
Tpeak (days) | 43 | 39 | 51 | 47 | 17 | 235 | 41 | 18 | 175 |
Ipeak (%) | 52.4 | 51.3 | 53.4 | 46.7 | 1.4 | 87.2 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 16.2 |
Rfinal (%) | 99.6 | 99.5 | 99.7 | 99.3 | 38.4 | 100 | 99.5 | 49.7 | 100 |
Model 1 assumed that all 1,000 simulated outbreaks had the same R 0, κL, ρL, κI and ρI, all medians from the posterior distributions. Model 2 assumed all simulations with the same κL, ρL, κI and ρI, but with different R 0. In model 3 all simulations had different κL, ρL, κI, ρI, and R 0. Dataset A includes the results of PCR assay, whereas dataset B includes the results of virus isolation. Duration, duration of the epidemic in days; Tpeak, time of the epidemic peak (days after infection); Ipeak, peak number of infective birds; Rfinal, seroprevalence at the end of the outbreak.