Table 2.
Temporal Coincidence in the Mean Peak Influenza Month and Birth Depression Peak Month in Each Country Under Study, Using Center of Gravity Statistics
Country, region | Month no. of peak influenza in autumn 1918 | Month no. of birth depression center of gravity in 1919 | Lag from peak influenza to center of birth depression, monthsa | Mean pregnancy stage at flu peak, months | Cumulative decrease in birth rate in early spring 1919, rate per 1000 (%)b | Cumulative increase in birth rate in late 1919 to early 1920, rate per 1000 (%)c |
Denmark, all | 11 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 2.9 | −1.8 (−7.3) | 2.0 (+8.4) |
Copenhagen | 10 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | −1.9 (−9.1) | 0.8 (+3.8) |
Rural | 11–12 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | −1.3 (−5.3) | 1.7 (+6.8) |
Norway, all | 10 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 2.2 | −2.4 (−9.8) | 2.1 (+8.9) |
Sweden, all | 10 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 2.5 | −4.0 (−13.5) | 5.8 (+19.9) |
United States, 10 states d | 10 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 2.4 | −1.8 (−7.6) | 0.3 (+1.3) |
The lag period (in months) was calculated as the difference between the month of peak influenza and that of the center of gravity of the birth depression.
The dip percentage was calculated as the sum of the negative excess birth rates during the dip period divided by the expected annual birth rate.
The percentage of compensation was calculated as the sum of the positive excess birth rates during the compensatory period divided by the expected annual birth rate.
The 10 states included were Connecticut; Pennsylvania; Maine; Massachusetts; Michigan; Minnesota; New Hampshire; New York; Vermont; and Washington, D.C.