Table 1.
Patients’ baseline characteristics, costs, health state utilities, and discount rate parameters used in model
| Parameter | Value | Probabilistic sensitivity analysis distribution | References |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline characteristics* | |||
| Hypertension | 14 283/18 113 | β (14 283, 3830) | 6, 14 |
| Diabetes | 4221/18 113 | β (4221, 13 892) | 6, 14 |
| Heart failure | 5793/18 113 | β (5793, 12 320) | 6, 14 |
| Previous stroke | 2273/18 113 | β (2273, 15 840) | 6, 14 |
| Previous transient ischaemic attack | 1663/18 113 | β (1663, 16 450) | 6, 14 |
| Previous myocardial infarction | 3005/18 113 | β (3005, 15 108) | 6, 14 |
| Previous intracranial haemorrhage | 713/18 113 | β (713, 17 400) | 6, 14 |
| Health state utilities | |||
| Atrial fibrillation (age 67) | 0.774 | 1−γ (43.06, 0.0052) | 15 |
| Stroke (permanent disutility)† | 0.233 | Normal (0.233, 0.0032) | 16 |
| Stroke (temporary disutility)† | 0.1385 | Normal (0.1385, 0.01) | 15, 17 |
| Stroke (temporary duration, years)† | 1/12 | Uniform (0, 0.183) | 17 |
| Myocardial infarction (permanent disutility) | 0.0409 | Normal (0.0409, 0.002) | 15 |
| Myocardial infarction (temporary disutility) | 0.1247 | Normal (0.1247, 0.01) | 15, 17 |
| Myocardial infarction (temporary duration, years) | 1/12 | Uniform (0, 0.183) | 17 |
| Intracranial haemorrhage (permanent disutility) | 0.0524 | Normal (0.0524, 0.001) | 15 |
| Pulmonary embolism (temporary disutility) | 0.1385 | Normal (0.1385, 0.01) | 15, 17 |
| Pulmonary embolism (temporary duration, years) | 1/12 | Uniform (0, 0.183) | 17 |
| Transient ischaemic attack (temporary disutility) | 0.1032 | Normal (0.1032, 0.01) | 15, 17 |
| Transient ischaemic attack (temporary duration, years) | 5/365 | Uniform (0, 0.027) | 17 |
| Major bleed (temporary disutility) | 0.1385 | Normal (0.1385, 0.01) | 15, 17 |
| Major bleed (temporary duration, years) | 1/12 | Uniform (0, 0.183) | 17 |
| Minor bleed (temporary disutility) | 0.06 | Normal (0.06, 0.01) | 17 |
| Minor bleed (temporary duration, years) | 5/365 | Uniform (0, 0.027) | 17 |
| Warfarin disutility | 0.013 | γ (1.3, 0.01) | 16 |
| Dabigatran disutility | 0.002 | γ (0.2, 0.01) | Assumption |
| Aspirin disutility | 0.002 | γ (0.2, 0.01) | 16 |
| Costs | |||
| Stroke—year 1† | £10 543.36 | γ (102.68, 102.68) | 18 |
| Stroke—subsequent years† | £2781.22 | γ (52.74, 52.74) | 18 |
| Myocardial infarction—year 1 | £2357.13 | γ (58.26, 40.46) | 18 |
| Myocardial infarction—subsequent years | £828.90 | γ (34.55, 23.99) | 18 |
| Pulmonary embolism | £1543.27 | NA | 19 |
| Transient ischaemic attack | £839.62 | NA | 19 |
| Major bleed | £1684.58 | NA | 20 |
| Minor bleed | £93.17 | NA | 20 |
| Proton pump inhibitors (1 year) | £185.20 | NA | 21 |
| Warfarin—drugs (1 year) | £41.23 | Uniform (32.98,49.48) | 22, 23 |
| Warfarin—monitoring (1 year) | £198.39 | γ (202.59, 0.979) | 22 |
| Dabigatran—both doses (1 year) | £919.80 | NA | 24 |
| Aspirin (1 year) | £7.39 | γ (73.9, 0.1) | 17, 23 |
| Discount rate | |||
| Utilities | 3.5% | NA | 25 |
| Costs | 3.5% | NA | 25 |
NA=not applicable.
*Proportion in initial population.
†Includes both strokes and systemic emboli, excluding pulmonary emboli.