Four classes of scenarios according to the pattern of migration: strict isolation (SI), constant migration (CM), ancient migration (AM) and secondary contact (SC). Three alternative models within each class of scenarios: constant population size (SIC, CMC, AMC, SCC), exponential population growth (SIE, CME, AME, SCE) and bottleneck specific to A. halleri followed by exponential population growth (SIB, CMB, AMB, SCB). The migration rate M is expressed in 4 Nm units, where m is the proportion of a population made up of migrants from the other population per generation. N is the effective population size expressed in numbers of individuals. A. halleri (Nhal), A. lyrata (Nlyr), or the ancestor (NA). The posterior probabilities of the best model selected under each scenario are reported.