Table 1. For each class of scenarios (see Fig. 3), posterior probabilities of models with constant population size versus alternative models with exponential population growth or recent bottlenecks in A. halleri.

scenario	Posterior probabilities of constant population size models against:
	exponential population growth models	recent botleneck in A. halleri models
SI	0.623 (0.794)	0.732 (0.950)
CM	0.699 (0.972)	0.831 (0.989)
AM	0.714 (0.951)	0.833 (0.974)
SC	0.652 (0.944)	0.736 (0.584)

Values in brackets represent the probabilities for each class of scenarios that the constant population size model (SIC, CMC, AMC, and SCC, see Fig. 3) is the correct model, given the observed posterior probabilities (see Text S1).