Table 4.

Comparison of strategies to identify patients at risk of having a diagnosis of gastro-oesophageal cancer in the next 2 years based on the validation cohort

Criteria	Risk threshold %	True negativea	False negativeb	False positivec	True positived	Sensitivity (%)	Specificity (%)	Positive predictive value (%)	Negative predictive value (%)
Current dysphagia	n/a	956 541	909	5156	434	32.3	99.5	7.8	99.9
Current haematemesis	n/a	957 321	1242	4376	101	7.5	99.5	2.3	99.9
Current abdominal pain	n/a	870 379	1034	91 318	309	23.0	90.5	0.3	99.9
Current appetite loss	n/a	958 441	1308	3256	35	2.6	99.7	1.1	99.9
Current weight loss	n/a	952 634	1236	9063	107	8.0	99.1	1.2	99.9
Anaemia	n/a	951 467	1224	10 230	119	8.9	98.9	1.1	99.9
Top 10% of risk	0.2	875 463	315	86 234	1028	76.5	91.0	1.2	100.0
Top 5% of risk	0.4	923 347	465	38 350	878	65.4	96.0	2.2	99.9
Top 1% of risk	2.1	955 297	812	6400	531	39.5	99.3	7.7	99.9
Top 0.5% of risk	5.7	958 399	942	3298	401	29.9	99.7	10.8	99.9

n/a = not applicable.

^aCriterion not met does not have disease.

^bCriterion not met does have disease.

^cCriterion met does not have disease.

^dCriterion met does have disease.