Table 5.

IV Estimates of Relationship between Medical Spending and Health Outcomes (Final HALex Value and Survival at End of Year 3), by Alternative Measures of Medical Spending

		Health Outcome Measure
		HALex		Survival Odds
Alternative Medical Spending Measures (N = 17,438)	EOLEI First-Stage Coefficient (F-Statistic)*	Medical Spending Coefficient (p-Value)	Pct. Change in HALex (10% Change in Spending)	Medical Spending Odds Ratio (p-Value)	Simulated Pct. Change in Survival Probability (10% Change in Spending)
All sources, cumulative spending over 3 years	0.545 (16.45)	0.0043 (0.045)	1.9%	1.081 (0.039)	1.5%
All sources, year 3 spending only	0.184 (7.21)	0.013 (0.096)	2.2	1.266 (0.034)	1.7
Cumulative Medicare spending over 3 years	0.536 (26.61)	0.0044 (0.044)	1.2	1.092 (0.022)	1.2
Medicare spending, year 3 only	0.184 (10.86)	0.013 (0.066)	1.4	1.29 (0.023)	1.3

^*F-statistic for test of instrument strength; first-stage equations for spending measures are identical for HALex and survival second-stage models.

EOLEI, End-of-Life Expenditure Index; HALex, Health and Activity Limitation Index.