Table 3b.

Estimated Changes in Rates of Medicare Ambulatory Care Sensitive and Elective Hospitalizations Associated with Potential Medicare Advantage Payment Cuts

Rate Reduction	Acute ACS	Chronic ACS	Elective
High MA penetration counties
1%	0.06** (0.002, 0.11)	0.12*** (0.04, 0.19)	0.03 (−0.06, 0.11)
5%	0.29** (0.01, 0.57)	0.61*** (0.22, 0.99)	0.14 (−0.30, 0.58)
10%	0.59** (0.02, 1.17)	1.2*** (0.46, 2.03)	0.28 (−0.62, 1.19)
Low MA penetration counties
1%	0.03 (−0.03, 0.09)	0.07* (−0.01, 0.15)	0.04 (−0.04, 0.13)
5%	0.16 (−0.15, 0.46)	0.35* (−0.06, 0.76)	0.22 (−0.21, 0.66)
10%	0.32 (−0.30, 0.9)	0.71* (−0.13, 1.55)	0.45 (−0.44, 1.35)

Notes. Robust standard errors (95% confidence intervals) in parentheses.

^*Statistically significant at 10%.

^**5%.

^***1%. 398 county-year observations from 74 counties in Arizona, Florida, and New York, 1999–2005 with at least 10,000 Medicare beneficiaries and 3% MA penetration. Medicare Advantage payments expressed as the natural logarithm of the monthly per-enrollee MA county payment rate (U.S.$2005). Low penetration variable indicates counties with MA enrollment below 16%. Models control for county and year fixed effects.

ACS, ambulatory care sensitive.