Table 2.

Posterior Probabilities for Bayesian Model of Backwards Blocking (Experiment 1)

	Prior Probability	After AB Event	After A Event
Causal Structures
Graph 0	(1−ρ)2	0	0
Graph 1	ρ(1−ρ)	(1−ρ)/(2−ρ)	1−ρ
Graph 2	ρ(1−ρ)	(1−ρ)/(2−ρ)	0
Graph 3	ρ2	ρ/(2−ρ)	ρ
Probability of Being a Blicket/Containing Super Lead
Object A	ρ	1/(2−ρ)	1
Object B	ρ	1/(2−ρ)	ρ

Note. The probability of an object being a blicket/containing super lead is computed by summing the probability of all causal structures in which a causal relationship exists between placing that object on the detector and the detector activating. The AB event corresponds to e+|a+,b+, and the A event is e+|a+,b−,