Table 4.

Scenario analysis: Present value of net public sector savings per family from a parenting programme

	Worst case	Base case	Best case
Public sector savings year 1 (post-intervention)*	-£1,011	-£781	£152
Total public sector savings (25 years)*	£1,271	£4,660	£41,611
Years to break even group provision only	9	5	1
Years to break even 80% group, 20% individual	9	6	1
Years to break even individual provision only	12	8	2
Return to public sector multiple of intervention cost	1.2 to 2.6	2.8 to 6.1	20.6 to 45.0
Return to society multiple of intervention cost	2.1 to 4.7	5.1 to 11.1	38.9 to 84.8

* Based on 80% group and 20% individual provision