Figure 9.

Two days of predicted power dissipation/production for group of six ACs under simplified models. The 50 simulations are in gray, and predicted averages and individual, pointwise 95% prediction intervals are in black. Left panel: Transition matrix A_t assumed constant in time t. Right panel: Innovation variances Σk₀ and autoregressive coefficients ${\mathbf{\Theta }}_m^{k_0}$ assumed constant across states k₀. The online version of this figure is in color.