TABLE 2.
Prospective studies1
| Reference | Population | Baseline age or age range | Duration of follow-up | Beverage category | BMI, BMI z score, or weight (in kg)
|
Results as predictors of weight change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Follow-up | ||||||
| y | |||||||
| Berkey et al (25) | 11 654 Children (6636 girls, 5067 boys); Growing Up Today study | 9–14 | 3 y | Sugar-sweetened drinks, fruit juice, diet soda, milk | Girls aged 9 y, 17.47 ± 2.842; girls aged 14 y, 20.52 ± 3.09; boys aged 9 y, 17.77 ± 2.90; boys aged 14 y, 20.82 ± 3.223 | Not given | Association between sugar-sweetened beverage intake and BMI: girls, β = 0.02, SE = 0.012 (P < 0.10); boys, β = 0.03, SE = 0.014 (P < 0.05)4,5 |
| Bes-Rastrollo et al (43) | 7194 Adults; Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra Study | 41 | 28.5 mo (median) | Sugar-sweetened soft drinks, diet soda, milk | All subjects: 61.8 ± 11–74.5 ± 14 kg | Percentage increase in weight (in kg) by quartile of soft drink consumption in subjects with ≥ 3 kg weight gain in 5 y before baseline: Q1, 41; Q2, 46; Q3, 43; Q4, 46; Q5, 50 | Association between sugar-sweetened beverage intake and weight gain in subjects with ≥ 3 kg weight gain in 5 y before baseline (OR = 1.6; 95% CI: 1.2, 2.4; P = 0.02) |
| Blum et al (36) | 166 School-age children (92 girls, 74 boys); Nebraska | 9.3 ± 1.0 | 2 y | Sugar-sweetened drinks, fruit juice, diet soda, milk | BMI z score, all subjects: 0.47 ± 1.0 | BMI z score, all subjects: 0.56 ± 1.0 | No significant association between sugar- sweetened beverage intake and year 2 BMI z score (β = −0.003, SE = 0.004; P > 0.05)6 |
| French et al (28) | 3552 Adults (1913 females, 1639 males); Healthy Worker Project, USA | Females, 37.3 ± 10.7; males, 39.1 ± 9.8 | 2 y | Soda | Females, 25.1 ± 5.5; males, 26.6 ± 3.9 | Females, 25.2 ± 5.5; males, 26.6 ± 3.8 | Positive but nonsignificant association between soda consumption and weight change: females, β = 0.08, SE = 0.10 (P = 0.39); males, β = 0.11, SE = 0.09 (P = 0.22)7 |
| Kvaavik et al (37) | 422 Adults (215 female, 207 male); Oslo Youth Study Survey | 23–27 | 8 y | Soda, diet soda | Females, combined 1979 and 1981 entries: 19.8 ± 2.5; males, combined 1979 and 1981 entries, 19.5 ± 2.6 | Females (1999), 23.4 ± 4.1; males (1999), 25.6 ± 3.9 | No significant association between soda intake and change in BMI: overweight males, OR: 1.05 (95% CI: 0.46, 2.40); obese males, OR: 2.29 (95% CI: 0.48, 10.96); overweight females, OR: 1.57 (95% CI: 0.46, 5.33); obese females, OR: 0.80 (95% CI: 0.09, 6.85) |
| Ludwig et al (38) | 548 Children (263 girls, 285 boys); Planet Health Intervention and Evaluation project | 11.7 ± 0.8 | 19 mo | Sugar-sweetened drinks, diet soda, fruit juice | 20.73 ± 3.99 | 22.23 ± 4.38 | Association between sugar-sweetened beverage intake and BMI (x̄: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.10, 0.39; P = 0.03) and odds of obesity (OR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.14, 2.24; P = 0.02)8 |
| Newby et al (39) | 1345 Children (670 girls, 675 boys); North Dakota (WIC) | 2–5 | 6–12 mo | Fruit juice, fruit drinks, milk, soda, diet soda | Girls, 16.4 ± 1.3; boys, 16.7 ± 1.3 | Not given | No significant association between soda intake and change in BMI (β = −0.01, SE = 0.02; P = 0.50), multivariate adjusted |
| Phillips et al (40) | 141 Females; MIT Growth and Development Study | 8–12 | 10 y | Energy-dense snack foods (soda) | BMI z score: −0.27 ± 0.89 (n = 166) | BMI z score: 0.02 ± 0.79 | Association between soda intake and BMI z score: β = ≈ 0.17 for Q3 and Q4 of percentage of calories from soda (P < 0.001)9 |
| Schulze et al (41) | 51 603 Females; Nurses Health Study II | 24–44 | 8 y | Sweetened soft drinks, diet soft drinks, fruit juice | By frequency of soft drink intake: <1/mo, 24.8 ± 5.2; 1–4/mo, 24.2 ± 5.0; 2–6/wk, 24.3 ± 5.5; ≥1/d, 24.8 ± 6.1 | By change in soft drink intake: a) 24.3 ± 4.9; b) 24.4 ± 5.9; c) 25.8 ± 5.8; d) 24.9 ± 5.710 | Association between soft-drink intake and weight gain (x±SE: 4.69 ± 0.20 kg from 1991 to 1995 and 4.20 ± 0.22 kg from 1995 to 1999) and BMI (x̄ ± SE: 1.72 ± 0.07 from 1991 to 1995 and 1.53 ± 0.08 from 1995 to 1999); multivariate adjusted means11 |
| Welsh et al (42) | 10 904 Children (50.1% girls, 49.9% boys); Missouri (WIC) | 2–3 | 1 y | Soda, fruit drinks, vitamin C–containing juices, other juices | 75% Of children were normal or underweight, 14.5% were at risk of overweight, and 10.1% were overweight12 | 3% Of normal-weight children were overweight at follow- up, 25% of at-risk children were overweight at follow- up, and 67% of overweight children remained overweight | Association between sweet-drink consumption and overweight: baseline normal weight, Q2 (OR: 1.5, 95% CI: 0.9, 2.4); Q3 (OR = 1.4, 95% CI: 0.8, 2.3); Q4 (OR: 1.3, 95% CI: 0.8, 2.1); at-risk overweight, Q2 (OR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.3, 3.2); Q3 (OR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.2, 3.2); Q4 (OR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1, 2.8); overweight, Q2 (OR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3; 3.4); Q3 (OR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.4, 3.7); Q4 (OR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1, 2.9)13 |
OR, odds ratio; Q, quartile; WIC, Special Supplemental Food Program for Women, Infants, and Children.
x̄ ± SD (all such values unless indicated otherwise).
BMI values based on baseline data presented by Berkey et al (98).
β represents the 1-y change in BMI per usual daily serving of each beverage during the same year.
Values were not adjusted for energy: all beverages were included simultaneously in each sex-specific mixed model adjusted for age, Tanner stage, race, menarche (girls), prior BMI z score, height growth, milk type, physical activity, and inactivity. After adjustment for energy, associations were no longer significant: boys, P > 0.31; girls, P > 0.15.
Data from written communication from Blum.
β represents the change in weight (lb) over the 2-y period associated with an increase of 1 serving of soda per week (1 serving = 12 oz).
Increase in BMI and frequency of obesity for each additional daily serving of sugar-sweetened drink consumed after adjustment for anthropometric, demographic, dietary, and lifestyle variables and total energy.
β represents the unit change in BMI z score associated with each incremental increase in quartile of percentage of calories from soda, adjusted for age at menarche, parental overweight, and servings of fruit and vegetables.
BMI presented by change in frequency of soft drink consumption from 1991 to 1995. Categories: a) consistent ≤1/wk, b) consistent ≥1/d, c) ≤1/wk to ≥1/d, and d) ≥1/d to ≤1/wk.
Greater increase in weight and BMI shown in females who increased soft-drink consumption from ≤1/wk to ≥1/d than in those who were consistent ≤1/wk, consistent ≥1/d, or ≥1/d to ≤1/wk.
Normal weight or underweight defined as BMI <85th percentile, overweight defined as BMI 85th–<95th percentile, and overweight defined as BMI ≥95th percentile according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention growth chart.
Referent quartile of sugar-sweetened drink consumption: quartile 1 (0 to <1 drink/d), quartile 2 (1 to <2 drinks/d), quartile 3 (2 to <3 drinks/d), and quartile 4 (≥3 drinks/d).