Table 2.

Baseline Plasma Sphingolipid Levels Predict Progression Among AD participants (n=120)^*

		MMSE				ADAS-Cog				CDR-Sum
		Lipid (Baseline)		Lipid* time		Lipid (Baseline)		Lipid* time		Lipid (Baseline)		Lipid* time
Lipid Tertile		beta (95% CI)	p	beta (95% CI)	p	beta (95% CI)	p	beta (95% CI)	p	beta (95% CI)	p	beta (95% CI)	p
Dihydroceramide (DHCer)
Cont. Tertiles		0.69 (−1.01, 2.40)	0.424	−0.67 (−1.34, 0.00)	0.050	−1.83 (−5.90, 2.23)	0.377	1.36 (−0.25, 2.23)	0.098	0.33 (−0.86, 1.5)	0.583	0.17 (−0.28, 0.62)	0.454
	1	0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)
	2	−0.40 (−2.37, 1.56)	0.686	−0.36 (−1.15, 0.42)	0.364	1.69 (−2.99, 6.37)	0.479	−0.15 (−2.09, 1.79)	0.879	0.71 (−0.65, 2.07)	0.304	0.01 (−0.52, 0.53)	0.979
	3	0.38 (−1.59, 2.35)	0.705	−0.56 (−1.34, 0.23)	0.166	−1.23 (−5.91, 3.46)	0.608	0.79 (−1.14, 2.71)	0.424	0.74 (−0.63, 2.11)	0.291	0.04 (−0.49, 0.57)	0.882
Ceramide
Cont. Tertiles		1.06 (−0.64, 2.76)	0.223	−0.41 (−1.10, 0.27)	0.234	−3.42 (−7.46, 0.62)	0.097	0.75 (−0.90, 2.40)	0.374	−0.12 (−1.32, 1.07)	0.842	0.11 (−0.35, 0.56)	0.644
	1	0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)
	2	1.10 (−0.85, 3.06)	0.268	−0.32 (−1.10, 0.46)	0.424	−0.24 (−4.88, 4.40)	0.920	−0.55 (−2.48, 1.39)	0.580	−0.33 (−1.71, 1.05)	0.639	0.08 (−0.44, 0.59)	0.768
	3	1.46 (−0.51, 3.42)	0.146	−0.63 (−1.41, 0.16)	0.116	−4.17 (−8.83, 0.49)	0.238	1.26 (−0.67, 3.20)	0.199	−0.29 (−1.68, 1.10)	0.683	0.30 (−0.23, 0.82)	0.272
Dihydrosphingomyelin (DHSM)
Cont. Tertiles		0.35 (−0.96, 1.66)	0.599	0.81 (0.27, 1.36)	0.003	−1.19 (−4.32, 1.94)	0.458	−1.70 (−3.03, −0.37)	0.012	−0.57 (−1.48, 0.34)	0.220	−0.27 (−0.63, 0.09)	0.140
	1	0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)
	2	0.56 (−1.33, 2.44)	0.565	−0.13 (−0.95, 0.69)	0.758	−0.80 (−5.34, 3.75)	0.731	−0.49 (−2.51, 1.53)	0.635	−0.93 (−2.24, 0.38)	0.163	0.05 (−0.49, 0.60)	0.846
	3	0.81 (−1.08, 2.70)	0.402	0.84 (0.01, 1.67)	0.046	−1.49 (−6.03, 3.05)	0.520	−1.63 (−3.69, 0.44)	0.123	−1.01 (−2.32, 0.29)	0.127	−0.29 (−0.84, 0.25)	0.293
Sphingomyelin (SM)
Cont. Tertiles		−0.15 (−1.36, 1.05)	0.804	0.86 (0.36, 1.36)	0.001	−0.25 (−3.13, 2.63)	0.863	−1.58 (−2.80, −0.35)	0.012	−0.15 (−0.99, 0.69)	0.726	−0.25 (−0.68, −0.03)	0.035
	1	0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)
	2	0.26 (−1.67, 2.19)	0.792	0.16 (−0.64, 0.97)	0.695	−1.81 (−6.44, 2.82)	0.444	−0.03 (−2.01, 1.96)	0.979	0.19 (−1.15, 1.53)	0.781	0.02 (−0.52, 0.55)	0.956
	3	−0.14 (−2.03, 1.75)	0.885	1.15 (0.34, 1.97)	0.006	−0.17 (4.67, 4.32)	0.940	−2.05 (−4.05, −0.05)	0.044	−0.40 (−1.71, 0.92)	0.555	−0.42 (−0.95, 0.12)	0.127
DHSM/DHCer Ratio
Cont. Tertiles		−2.17 (−18.37, 14.04)	0.793	12.35 (5.93, 18.78)	<0.001	4.49 (−34.67, 43.65)	0.822	−25.46 (−40.97, −9.94)	0.001	−6.01 (−17.28, 5.26)	0.296	−3.58 (−8.07, 0.91)	0.118
	1	0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)
	2	0.23 (−1.69, 2.15)	0.813	1.08 (0.30, 1.87)	0.007	0.02 (−4.64, 4.68)	0.993	−2.77 (−4.66, −0.88)	0.004	−1.03 (−2.36, 0.30)	0.130	−0.31 (−0.86, 0.24)	0.271
	3	−0.77 (−2.71, 1.16)	0.434	1.35 (0.56, 2.13)	0.001	2.12 (−2.58, 6.82)	0.377	−3.18 (−5.06, −1.30)	0.001	−0.57 (−1.91, 0.78)	0.409	−0.39 (−0.94, 0.16)	0.163
SM/Cer Ratio
Cont. Tertiles		−7.61 (−20.78, 5.57)	0.258	0.89 (0.40, 1.37)	<0.001	20.12 (−11.58, 51.83)	0.213	−1.63 (−2.82, −0.45)	0.007	−0.05 (−9.25, 9.15)	0.991	−0.33 (−0.66, −0.001)	0.050
	1	0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)		0 (ref)
	2	−0.86 (−2.77, 1.05)	0.376	0.37 (−0.42, 1.17)	0.358	2.96 (−1.65, 7.57)	0.208	−1.08 (−3.01, 0.85)	0.274	−0.35 (−1.69, 0.99)	0.609	−0.11 (−0.66, 0.43)	0.684
	3	−1.42 (−3.38, 0.53)	0.154	1.19 (0.38, 2.00)	0.004	3.85 (−0.86, 8.57)	0.109	−2.42 (−4.40, −0.45)	0.016	−0.07 (−1.45, 1.31)	0.917	−0.42 (−0.98, 0.15)	0.148

^*All models control for sex, race, duration of diagnosis and pre-progression rate

Cont = Continuous; Tertile 1 = Low est, Tertile 3 = Highest