Table 6.
Measure of performance predicting 3-day and 14-day ICU admission and 30-day mortality by using different prediction rules
| Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | AUC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modified ATS | |||||
| - ICU admission (3 d) | 94.6 (88.6 to 98.0) | 72.7 (67.5 to 77.4) | 53.6 (46.3 to 60.7) | 97.6 (94.8 to 99.1) | 0.836 (0.799 to 0.870) |
| - ICU admission (14 d) | 89.9 (83.4 to 94.5) | 74.6 (69.4 to 79.3) | 59.2 (52.0 to 66.1) | 94.8 (91.2 to 97.2) | 0.823 (0.784 to 0.857) |
| - Mortality | 73.1 (62.9 to 81.8) | 63.5 (58.3 to 68.6) | 34.7 (28.1 to 41.8) | 89.9 (85.5 to 93.4) | 0.683 (0.638 to 0.726) |
| IDSA/ATS | |||||
| - ICU admission (3 d) | 92.8 (86.3 to 96.8) | 67.9 (62.6 to 72.9) | 49.0 (42.1 to 56.0) | 96.6 (93.4 to 98.5) | 0.803 (0.763 to 0.839) |
| - ICU admission (14 d) | 88.4 (81.5 to 93.3) | 69.5 (64.1 to 74.6) | 54.3 (47.3 to 61.2) | 93.6 (89.6 to 96.4) | 0.789 (0.749 to 0.826) |
| - Mortality | 76.3 (66.4 to 84.5) | 60.4 (55.1 to 65.6) | 33.8 (27.4 to 40.6) | 90.6 (86.1 to 94.0) | 0.684 (0.638 to 0.727) |
| SOAR | |||||
| - ICU admission (3 d) | 62.2 (52.5 to 71.2) | 82.6 (78.1 to 86.5) | 54.3 (45.3 to 63.2) | 86.8 (82.5 to 90.3) | 0.724 (0.680 to 0.765) |
| - ICU admission (14 d) | 56.6 (47.6 to 65.3) | 82.9 (78.2 to 86.9) | 57.5 (48.4 to 66.2) | 82.3 (77.7 to 86.4) | 0.697 (0.652 to 0.740) |
| - Mortality | 41.9 (31.8 to 52.6) | 74.9 (70.1 to 79.4) | 30.7 (22.8 to 39.5) | 83.0 (78.4 to 86.9) | 0.584 (0.537 to 0.631) |
| SCAP (>9) | |||||
| - ICU admission (3 d) | 89.2 (81.9 to 94.3) | 51.7 (46.1 to 57.1) | 38.1 (32.1 to 44.3) | 93.5 (88.9 to 96.6) | 0.818 (0.778 to 0.852) |
| - ICU admission (14 d) | 86.8 (79.7 to 92.1) | 53.0 (47.3 to 58.6) | 43.1 (37.0 to 49.3) | 90.8 (85.6 to 94.5) | 0.801 (0.760 to 0.837) |
| - Mortality | 80.7 (71.1 to 88.1) | 47.3 (42.0 to 52.7) | 28.8 (23.4 to 34.8) | 90.2 (85.0 to 94.1) | 0.709 (0.664 to 0.751) |
| SMART-COP (>2) | |||||
| - ICU admission (3 d) | 81.1 (72.5 to 87.9) | 76.3 (71.3 to 80.7) | 53.3 (45.4 to 61.0) | 92.4 (88.6 to 95.2) | 0.836 (0.798 to 0.869) |
| - ICU admission (14 d) | 76.0 (67.7 to 83.0) | 77.5 (72.4 to 82.0) | 58.0 (50.2 to 65.5) | 88.7 (84.4 to 92.2) | 0.822 (0.783 to 0.857) |
| - Mortality | 62.4 (51.7 to 72.2) | 68.4 (63.2 to 73.2) | 34.3 (27.2 to 42.0) | 87.3 (82.7 to 91.0) | 0.686 (0.641 to 0.729) |
| SMRT-CO (>1) | |||||
| - ICU admission (3 d) | 63.1 (53.4 to 72.0) | 75.1 (70.1 to 79.6) | 45.8 (37.7 to 54.0) | 85.9 (81.4 to 89.7) | 0.756 (0.713 to 0.795) |
| - ICU admission (14 d) | 60.5 (51.5 to 69.0) | 76.2 (71.1 to 80.8) | 51.0 (42.8 to 59.1) | 82.5 (77.6 to 86.7) | 0.751 (0.708 to 0.791) |
| - Mortality | 52.7 (42.1 to 63.1) | 70.4 (65.3 to 75.1) | 32.0 (24.7 to 40.0) | 84.9 (80.2 to 88.8) | 0.672 (0.627 to 0.716) |
| CURB-65 (>1) | |||||
| - ICU admission (3 d) | 89.2 (81.9 to 94.3) | 39.0 (33.8 to 44.5) | 32.8 (27.5 to 38.4) | 91.5 (85.7 to 95.6) | 0.732 (0.688 to 0.772) |
| - ICU admission (14 d) | 87.6 (80.6 to 92.7) | 40.0 (34.5 to 45.6) | 37.4 (31.9 to 43.1) | 88.7 (82.3 to 93.4) | 0.715 (0.670 to 0.756) |
| - Mortality | 87.1 (78.5 to 93.1) | 37.0 (32.0 to 42.3) | 26.8 (21.9 to 32.2) | 91.5 (85.7 to 95.6) | 0.662 (0.616 to 0.706) |
| PSI (>90) | |||||
| - ICU admission (3 d) | 92.8 (86.3 to 96.8) | 21.6 (17.3 to 26.4) | 28.3 (23.7 to 33.2) | 90.0 (81.2 to 95.6) | 0.730 (0.868 to 0.771) |
| - ICU admission (14 d) | 92.3 (86.2 to 96.2) | 22.2 (17.8 to 27.2) | 32.7 (27.9 to 37.8) | 87.5 (78.2 to 93.8) | 0.717 (0.673 to 0.759) |
| - Mortality | 92.5 (85.1 to 96.9) | 20.8 (16.7 to 25.4) | 23.6 (19.4 to 28.3) | 91.3 (82.8 to 96.4) | 0.703 (0.658 to 0.745) |
Data are presented as percentages (95% confidence interval)
The scores were dichotomized as low risk vs. higher risk (Modified ATS: meeting criteria, IDSA/ATS: meeting criteria, SOAR: meeting criteria, SCAP >9, SMART-COP >2, SMRT-CO >1, CURB-65 >1, PSI >90).