Skip to main content
. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2011 Nov 22.
Published in final edited form as: Liver Transpl. 2009 Feb;15(2):148–162. doi: 10.1002/lt.21671

Table 1.

Event probabilities in the model.

Base Case Range Used
in Sensitivity
Analysis
Sources
Pre-transplantation

Yearly percent chance of developing symptomatic ascites on waitlist 20.3% 10-40% (32, 72, 73)
Percent chance of receiving TIPS for ascites or bleeding 20.5% 5-40% (32, 72, 74)
Percent chance of death related to each TIPS procedure 3.8% 1-8% (72, 74)
Yearly percent chance of contracting SBP in patients with symptomatic
ascites
4.3% 2-8% (72, 75-78)
Percent chance of death related to each episode of SBP 20.0% 10-40% (72, 75, 77-79)
Yearly percent chance of having encephalopathy requiring admission 23.5% 11-46% (32, 80)
Percent chance of death from each episode of encephalopathy 11.5% 5-25% (81, 82)
Yearly percent chance of developing HCC on waitlist 10.3% 5-20% (32, 83)
Yearly percent chance of in patients with HCC of progression resulting in
delisting (equivalent to 5.4% per 90-days on the waiting list)
21.7% 10-40% (32, 84)
Yearly percent chance of variceal hemorrhage 22.4% 11-44% (32, 85-87)
Percent chance of death from each episode of variceal hemorrhage 14.2% 7-28% (86-88)
Yearly percent chance of remaining stable on waitlist, without complications 18.7% 9-36% (89)
Yearly percent chance of death once delisted for a contraindication to
transplant
32.4% 16-64% (90-93)

Post DDLT

Percent chance of DDLT recipient death within 30 days of transplant 4.1% 2-9% (32, 94, 95)
Percent chance of graft failure due to disease recurrence 2.0% 1-10% (32)
Percent chance of successful retransplantation in patient with graft failure
secondary to recurrent disease
24.9% 12-50% (32)
Yearly percent chance of admission for non-biliary sepsis post DDLT 9.9% 4-20% (96-98)
Percent chance of death from each sepsis event after DDLT 14.1% 7-28% (96-98)
Percent chance of needing non-transplant, no-biliary reoperation more than
30 days after DDLT
22.5% 11-45% (99)
Percent chance of death after each non-transplant reoperation after DDLT 10.5% 1-20% (99)
Percent chance of a biliary complication after DDLT 21% 10-40% (100-104)
Probability of death from biliary complications after DDLT 4.7% 2-9% (100, 101, 104, 105)
Percent chance of receiving retransplantation in a recipient with biliary
complications after DDLT
4.8% 2-9% (102, 106, 107)
Percent chance of requiring non-transplant reoperation in a recipient with
biliary complications after DDLT
8.0% 4-16% (100, 102, 104, 108)
Percent chance of acute rejection severe enough for hospitalization after
DDLT
35.9% 15-60% (11, 109, 110)
Percent chance of death from an episode of acute rejection after DDLT 0.2% 0.1-0.5% (110)
Percent chance of requiring retransplantation because of severe acute
rejection after DDLT
1.3% 0.5-3% (110)

Post LDLT

Donor

Probability of donor death after LDLT procedure 0.28% 0.01-1% (51-55)
Probability of donor having major complications (Clavien grade 3 or 4) after
LDLT procedure
1.5% 0.5-4% A2ALL,(52-54, 56, 57,
111-116)
Probability of donor having minor or major complications (Clavien grade 2 or
greater) after LDLT procedure
13% 6-25% (52-54, 56, 57,
111-
116)
Recipient
Percent chance of LDLT recipient death within 30 days of transplant 4.6% 2-9% A2ALL, (31, 32, 117)
Percent chance of graft failure due disease recurrence 3.2% 1.5-7% A2ALL, (31, 118-122)
Percent chance of successful retransplantation in patient with graft failure
secondary to recurrent disease
21.4% 12-50% A2ALL, (32)
Yearly percent chance of recipient admission for non-biliary sepsis post LDLT 9.9% 4-20% A2ALL, (31, 96-98)
Percent chance of recipient death from each sepsis event after LDLT 14.5% 7-28% A2ALL, (31, 96-98)
Percent chance of recipient requiring non-transplant, non-biliary reoperation
after LDLT
22.5% 11-45% A2ALL, (31, 51, 112)
Percent chance of recipient death after each non-transplant reoperation after
LDLT
10.5% 1-20% (99)
Percent chance of a recipient biliary complication after LDLT 37% 15-60% A2ALL, (31, 51, 104,
108, 117, 123, 124)
Percent chance of recipient death from biliary complications after LDLT 9.7% 4-19% A2ALL, (31, 100, 101,
104, 108, 117, 123,
124)
Percent chance of receiving retransplantation in a recipient with biliary
complications after LDLT
4.9% 2-10% (100, 101, 104, 117,
123, 124)
Percent chance of requiring non-transplant reoperation in a recipient with
biliary complications after LDLT
54.9% 20-90% A2ALL,(104, 117, 123,
124)
Chance of having acute rejection severe enough for hospitalization after LDLT 33.9% 15-60% A2ALL, (11, 109, 110, 122,
125)
Percent chance of death from an episode of acute rejection after LDLT 0.2% 0.1-0.5% A2ALL, (11, 110, 122,
125)
Percent chance of requiring retransplantation because of rejection after LDLT 1.3% 0.5-3% A2ALL, (11, 110, 122,
125)