Table 4. Model validation and survival data after ten year, 1000 subject trial.

Results from a 120-month Monte Carlo simulation of 1,000 theoretical subjects with base case values for all variables.

Variable	No transplant available	Listed for DDLT	Listed for DDLT with LDLT available
Mean cost per patient, 2002 USD	65,068	151,613	208,149
Mean unadjusted lifespan (years)	3.1	6.4	7.3
Mean quality adjusted lifespan (QALY)	1.9	4.4	4.9
Number receiving DDLT (primary or retransplant)	-	687	233
Number receiving LDLT (primary)	-	-	715
Number dead after 1 year	175	158	136
Number dead after 5 years	630	335	256
Number dead after 10 years	964	454	397
Number receiving primary transplant at one year	-	309	520
Number receiving primary transplant at five years	-	516	662
Number dead pre-transplant or on waitlist* (%)	964	309 (30.9)	112 (11.2)
Mean cost to prevent one pre-transplant death, 2002 USD	-	122,516	199,942
Number dead after transplant (%)	-	145 (14.5)	285 (28.5)
Living donor deaths (%)	-	-	2 (0.2)
Living donor serious complications, excluding deaths (%)	-	-	17 (2.4)

^*This represents a 10 year cumulative mortality for the entire cohort. The yearly mortality rate on the waiting list is roughly one-tenth of this value.