Table 1.
Summary results of five groups of models for allocating funds to general practices in England for commissioning hospital care; predicting costs for 2007-8 using data from 2005-6 and 2006-7
| Model | Variables included | Coefficient of determination (R²) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Person based | Attributed | Estimation sample* | Validation sample 1† | Validation sample 2‡ | ||
| 1 | Age and sex | — | 0.0373 | 0.0366 | 0.3444 | |
| 2 | Age and sex, diagnoses (ICD-10 codes) | — | 0.1264 | 0.1223 | 0.6084 | |
| 3 (basic model) | Age and sex, diagnoses | 152 PCT dummies | 0.1268 | 0.1227 | 0.7437 | |
| 4 (full model) | Age and sex, diagnoses | PCT dummies, 135 needs variables, 63 supply variables | 0.1272 | 0.1230 | 0.7851 | |
| 5 (parsimonious model) | Age and sex, diagnoses | PCT dummies, 7 needs variables, 3 supply variables | 0.1272 | 0.1229 | 0.7735 | |
PCT=primary care trust.
*Individual level sample (n=5 206 651).
†Individual level sample (n=5 205 747).
‡Practice level sample (n=797 practices, 5 445 559 individuals).