Table 2.
Posterior estimates of proportion of overdiagnosis among women aged 50-69 in Isère, 1991-2006, for models 1 to 7
| Model | Sojourn time | Mean (95% CI) overdiagnosis for carcinomas in situ (%) | Mean (95% CI) overdiagnosis for invasive cancers (%) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution | Mean sojourn time (years) | Among all cancers diagnosed* | Among cancers screened† | Among all cancers diagnosed* | Among cancers screened† | ||||||
| In situ | In situ to invasive | Invasive | |||||||||
| Phase in situ | Phase invasive | ||||||||||
| Model 1 | γ | 4.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 28.0 (3.9 to 58.1) | 30.3 (4.5 to 60.1) | 0.0 (0.0 to 0.1) | 0.1 (0.0 to 0.2) | ||
| Model 2 | γ | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 51.7 (13.2 to 80.4) | 54.7 (15.4 to 81.8) | 0.2 (0.0 to 0.5) | 0.4 (0.1 to 1.0) | ||
| Model 3 | γ | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 12.4 (5.3 to 19.7) | 17.3 (7.8 to 28.5) | 0.9 (0.0 to 2.9) | 3.4 (0.0 to 11.4) | ||
| Model 4 | γ | 5.00 | 1.25 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 39.6 (10.5 to 61.4) | 43.5 (13.9 to 63.3) | 3.0 (0.3 to 7.6) | 5.8 (0.7 to 14.5) | ||
| Model 5 | Exponential | 4.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 33.8 (7.4 to 65.4) | 35.4 (8.0 to 65.9) | 0.0 (0.0 to 0.0) | 0.0 (0.0 to 0.1) | ||
| Model 6 | γ | 2.00 | 0.50 | 3.00 | 4.00 | 23.3 (0.6 to 65.9) | 30.9 (1.0 to 72.9) | 3.9 (0.2 to 10.6) | 8.9 (0.5 to 24.0) | ||
| Model 7 | γ | 6.00 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 4.00 | 45.8 (3.6 to 85.7) | 49.0 (4.4 to 86.9) | 0.3 (0.0 to 1.4) | 0.6 (0.0 to 3.2) | ||
CI=credibility interval.
*Cancers diagnosed either clinically or by screening mammography.
†Cancers detected by screening mammography only.