Fig. 5.

Predictors of age at great achievement. The figure shows how the age at which a Nobel Laureate produces prize-winning work is related to the Laureate's age at highest degree and whether the great achievement had a theoretical component. Each square (circle) represents the average achievement age for the Nobel Laureates who received their high degree at a given age and the Nobel Prize for theoretical (empirical) work. They are scaled in proportion to the number of Nobel Laureates in that cell. SI Appendix, Table S3 reports regressions of achievement age on the nature of work (theoretical vs. empirical) and age at high degree for a range of specifications. The regression and 95% confidence intervals are based on the specification shown in column 3 of SI Appendix, Table S3B.