r |
births per year |
f |
maturity rate |
d1
|
juvenile death rate |
d2
|
adult death rate |
ks,1
|
juvenile death rate from varicella (no vaccine) |
ks,2
|
adult death rate from varicella (no vaccine) |
kv,1
|
varicella mortality of vaccinated juveniles |
kv,2
|
varicella mortality of vaccinated adults |
σ |
1/duration of incubation period |
δs
|
1/duration of infectious period (no vaccine) |
δv
|
1/duration of infectious period if vaccinated |
β1
|
transmission rate—juveniles to juveniles |
β2
|
transmission rate—adults to adults, adults to juveniles and juveniles to adults |
v |
vaccination probability |
p |
probability of primary failure |
φ |
probability of temporary protection |
ε |
probability of becoming infected if vaccinated |
b |
probability that immunity will be ‘boosted’ if exposed to varicella while vaccine protected |
ρ |
relative infectiousness of breakthrough varicella |
ψ |
waning rate (year−1) |
λ1
|
forces of infection in juveniles |
λ2
|
forces of infection in adults |
pIJ
|
infection probability for juveniles |
pBJ
|
breakthrough probability for juveniles |
pIA
|
infection probability for adults |
pBA
|
breakthrough probability for adults |
CIJ
|
total expected costs of infection per case in juveniles |
CIA
|
total expected costs of infection per case in adults |
CBJ
|
total expected costs of breakthrough infection in juveniles |
CBA
|
total expected costs of breakthrough infection in adults |
Cv
|
vaccination cost |
DR
|
disutility of vaccine refusal (expected cost to individuals who do not receive the vaccine) |
DV
|
disutility of vaccination (expected cost to vaccinated individuals) |
Dave
|
average disutility to the society (expected societal cost per person) |
VN
|
Nash equilibrium vaccination coverage |