Table 1.

Sources of uncertainty relevant to classes of species distribution model.

uncertainty class	uncertainty source	niche-based models	demographic models	process-based models
data	observed distribution data (including recorder effort)	relevant both to model building and model fit assessment	relevant to model fit assessment	relevant to model fit assessment
	current covariate (habitat and/or climate) data	relevant to model building and model fit assessment	may be relevant to model building (if spatial information on demography is required), always to model fit assessment	relevant to model fit assessment
	other data sources (e.g. noise in demographic data)	not relevant	relevant to demographic data for model building	relevant to model building, e.g. through observations on phenology
model	model fitting methods (generalized-linear model, generalized-additive model, etc.)	highly relevant for niche identification	relevant for, e.g. identification of demographic links to weather	not (or minimally) relevant
	structural model misspecification	highly relevant	highly relevant	highly relevant
	parameter estimation	relevant, but often fewer in number than more complex models	highly relevant	highly relevant and often involving large numbers of parameters
	uncertain model fit to true niche/distribution	highly relevant	highly relevant	highly relevant
prediction	uncertainties in covariate data	highly relevant	highly relevant	highly relevant
	no-analogue conditions	highly relevant	highly relevant	not important