Table 2.

Values of the attack rate α and the corresponding values of the initial susceptible proportion (s(0)), the basic reproduction number (R₀), the minimum and maximum fractions that could have been infected (α_min, α_max), the adjusted reproduction numbers during periods when we expect that social distancing is at a minimum (R_A(B), R_A(D) and R_A(F)), the social distancing coefficient when social distancing was at its greatest (σ_min), and the estimated number of deaths avoided per 100 000 (Δ). (Values in the first row are computed by assuming that α was 10% less than the reported clinical attack rate with s(0) allowed to vary freely. The second row is computed using the clinical attack rate as an estimator for α. The third row is computed by adjusting α to obtain s(0)=1.0.)

α	s(0)	R0	αmin	αmax	RA(B)	RA(D)	RA(F)	σmin	Δ
0.329	0.821	1.96	0.309	0.529	1.94	1.97	1.93	0.619	260
0.366	0.912	1.76	0.344	0.588	1.75	1.80	1.74	0.619	260
0.402	1.000	1.60	0.377	0.644	1.59	1.64	1.58	0.619	260