Table 2. Model Parameter Values: Screening and Treatment Response Characteristics.
Base | Min | Max | Source | |
Screening Test Characteristics | ||||
FibroTest (FibroSure) | ||||
Probability for patients with F0–F1 | [6], [8], [19], [20] | |||
Test + (>0.58) | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.15 | |
Test − (<0.31), specificity at 0.31 | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.72 | |
Probability for patients with F2–F4 | ||||
Test + (>0.58), sensitivity at 0.58 | 0.56 | 0.35 | 0.59 | |
Test − (<0.31) | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.29 | |
Liver biopsy screening frequency (year) | 3 | 3 | 5 | [47] |
Treatment Response Probability | ||||
Standard treatment (peginterferon and ribavirin) | ||||
Probability(EVR at 12 week), genotype 1 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.76 | [28] |
Probability(SVR | EVR), genotype 1 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.69 | [28] |
Probability(SVR), genotype 2 and 3 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 1.00 | [1], [10], [28], [34] |
Triple therapy (peginterferon+ribavirin+telaprevir), genotype 1a | [9] | |||
Probability(virologic failure at 12 week) | 0.03 | |||
Probability(eRVR+, 24 week treatment | non-failure at 12 week) | 0.60 | |||
Probability(eRVR−, 48 week treatment | non-failure at 12 week) | 0.35 | |||
Probability(SVR|eRVR+, 24 week treatment) | 0.89 | |||
Probability(SVR|eRVR−, 48 week treatment) | 0.67 | |||
Noncompliance | 0 | 0 | 0.63 | [29] |
The effectiveness listed for triple therapy are for patients with fibrosis stage F0 to F2; for patients with fibrosis stage F3 and F4, SVR is reduced by 20%.