Table 1.
Model Inputs and Sources
| Variable | Value | 95% CI | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population Characteristics | |||
| Population size | ~9000* | ||
| % Married | MEASURE DHS [36–39] | ||
| Swaziland | 33% | ± 0.36% | |
| Tanzania | 52% | ± 0.42% | |
| Uganda | 58% | ± 0.33% | |
| Zambia | 58% | ± 0.68% | |
| Sexual Partnerships Parameters | |||
| Degree distribution – Swaziland (M, F) | MEASURE DHS [36] | ||
| 0 partners | 39%, 30% | ± 0.72%, ± 0.59% | |
| 1 partner | 47%, 68% | ± 0.76%, ± 0.60% | |
| 2 partners | 13%, 2% | ± 0.33%, ± 0.04% | |
| 3 partners | 0.5%, 0% | ± 0.02%, ± 0.00% | |
| 4 partners | 0.5%, 0% | ± 0.02%, ± 0.00% | |
| Degree distribution – Tanzania (M, F) | MEASURE DHS [37] | ||
| 0 partners | 29%, 24% | ± 0.53%, ± 0.44% | |
| 1 partner | 51%, 64% | ± 0.65%, ± 0.54% | |
| 2 partners | 16%, 9% | ± 0.35%, ± 0.20% | |
| 3 partners | 2%, 2% | ± 0.06%, ± 0.03% | |
| 4 partners | 2%, 1% | ± 0.05%, ± 0.03% | |
| Degree distribution – Uganda (M, F) | MEASURE DHS [38] | ||
| 0 partners | 28%, 27% | ± 0.42%, ± 0.37% | |
| 1 partner | 52%, 71% | ± 0.52%, ± 0.38% | |
| 2 partners | 17%, 2% | ± 0.30%, ± 0.03% | |
| 3 partners | 2%, 0.2% | ± 0.05%, ± 0.00% | |
| 4 partners | 1%, 0% | ± 0.02%, ± 0.00% | |
| Degree distribution – Zambia (M, F) | MEASURE DHS [39] | ||
| 0 partners | 19%, 25% | ± 0.66%, ± 0.42% | |
| 1 partner | 61%, 73% | ± 1.01%, ± 0.44% | |
| 2 partners | 15%, 2% | ± 0.55%, ± 0.04% | |
| 3 partners | 3%, 0% | ± 0.10%, ± 0.00% | |
| 4 partners | 2%, 0% | ± 0.09%, ± 0.00% | |
| Duration of partnerships (years) | Morris [8], NACA [29] | ||
| Spousal | 10 | 4.0–19.9 i | |
| Non-spousal | 1.5 | 0.8–2.4 | |
| HIV Disease Parameters | |||
| HIV transmission probabilities (per act) | Wawer [45], Quinn [73] | ||
| Acute phase | 0.0082 | 0.0039–0.0150 | |
| Chronic phase | 0.0007 | 0.0006–0.0011 | |
| With treatment | 0.0001 | 0.00008–0.00014 | |
| Initial HIV prevalence | MEASURE DHS [36–39] | ||
| Swaziland | 26.2% | ± 0.40% | |
| Tanzania | 6.7% | ± 0.11% | |
| Uganda | 5.8% | ± 0.08% | |
| Zambia | 15.3% | ± 0.26% | |
| CD4 count at HIV treatment initiation | 200 cell/µl | N/A | WHO [54] |
| HIV treatment coverage (of eligible patients) | UNAIDS [1] | ||
| Swaziland | 42% | 36%–50% ii | |
| Tanzania | 31% | 26%–38% | |
| Uganda | 33% | 27%–40% | |
| Zambia | 46% | 40%–56% | |
| HIV additional mortality | Badri [49] | ||
| < 200 cells/µL | 0.0222 | 0.0190–0.0271 | |
| 200 – 350 cells/µL | 0.0066 | 0.0042–0.0100 | |
| > 350 cells/µL | 0.0042 | 0.0025–0.0058 |
*
We initialized the network model with a population of 4000 men. We formed partnerships according to the degree distribution for each country.34–37 The number of women in the network was then determined by these partnerships. For the degree distributions we used, this led to approximately 4900 women in the population (the number varied slightly by country), and thus a population size of approximately 9000 individuals.
i
Range found in literature.
ii
Low and high estimates.