Table 2.

Model calibration parameters and measures.

	Swaziland	Tanzania	Uganda	Zambia
Calibration Parameter
HIV monthly transmission probabilities (per partnership)
Acute phase	0.34	0.18	0.25	0.25
Chronic phase	0.029	0.015	0.021	0.022
With treatment	0.0041	0.0022	0.0030	0.0031
Calibration Measures
Change in HIV Prevalence (%)
Data, 2004–2007 [1]	−0.4%	−0.3%	−0.9%	0.1%
(low and high estimates indicated)	(−2.5%, 1.7%)	(−1.0%, 0.5%)	(−2.1%, −0.1%)	(−2.1%, 2.2%)
Model prediction, 2004–2007	−0.9%	−0.1%	−0.2%	−1.0%
(95% confidence intervals)	(−1.8%, −0.2%)	(−0.7%, 0.4%)	(−0.7%, 0.2%)	(−1.6%, −0.3%)
Number of partners
Data [36–39]
Married (%)	33%	52%	58%	58%
(95% confidence intervals)	(32%, 34%)	(51%, 53%)	(57%, 59%)	(56%, 60%)
More than 1 concurrent partner	14%	20%	20%	20%
(95% confidence intervals)	(13%, 15%)	(19%, 21%)	(19%, 21%)	(18%, 22%)
Model prediction
Married (%)	31%	52%	58%	57%
(95% confidence intervals)	(30%, 32%)	(51%, 53%)	(58%, 59%)	(57%, 58%)
More than 1 concurrent partner	13%	20%	21%	19%
(95% confidence intervals)	(12%, 13%)	(19%, 20%)	(20%, 21%)	(19%, 20%)

^*The monthly probabilities of HIV transmission were adjusted to match country-specific HIV prevalence trends. Other measures, such as number of married and unmarried partners, are also well-matched.