Table 4.

Baseline measures associated with worsening from CDR=0 at baseline to CDR=0.5 at followup. Logistic Regression Models based on participants with CDR=0 at baseline:

	Univariable model (adjusted for age, gender, and education)				Stepwise multivariable model*
Variable	OR	95% CI for OR		P value	OR	95% CI for OR		P value
Age 75–84†	--	--	--	--	1.30	0.68	2.48	0.4213
Age ≥85†	--	--	--	--	1.28	0.58	2.81	0.5456
Female	--	--	--	--	1.62	0.95	2.77	0.0788
Education ≥high school††	--	--	--	--	1.39	0.67	2.92	0.3801
MMSE	0.76	0.67	0.86	<.0001	0.86	0.75	0.97	0.0177
WRAT-3 Reading	0.97	0.93	1.02	0.2869	--	--	--	--
Digit Span Forward	0.87	0.69	1.09	0.2203	--	--	--	--
Category Fluency	0.89	0.84	0.95	0.0002	--	--	--	--
Letter Fluency	0.93	0.88	0.99	0.0244	--	--	--	--
Boston Naming Test	0.91	0.87	0.95	<.0001	--	--	--	--
I.U. Token Test	0.77	0.66	0.89	0.0005	--	--	--	--
Block Design	0.97	0.94	0.99	0.0185	--	--	--	--
WMS-R Visual Reproduction (Immediate)	0.93	0.90	0.97	<.0001	--	--	--	--
WMS-R Visual Reproduction (Delayed)	0.91	0.88	0.94	<.0001	0.93	0.90	0.96	<.0001
WMS-R Logical Memory (Immediate)	0.93	0.89	0.97	0.0002	--	--	--	--
WMS-R Logical Memory (Delayed)	0.92	0.89	0.96	<.0001	--	--	--	--
OME sum of 3 trials	0.87	0.82	0.93	<.0001	--	--	--	--
SIT “Bag B” Recall	0.70	0.61	0.81	<.0001	0.84	0.72	0.98	0.0266
Clock Drawing	0.91	0.77	1.06	0.2246	--	--	--	--
Trail Making Test A	1.02	1.01	1.03	0.0020	--	--	--	--
Trail Making Test B	1.01	1.01	1.02	<.0001	1.01	1.00	1.01	0.0908

^*During the stepwise procedure, age, gender, and education were always included. Area under the ROC curve = 0.78 in final stepwise multivariable model.

^†The two older groups each compared to the 65–74 group (the reference group).

^††≥ High school education cCompared to < high school education (the reference group).