Table 1. Probabilities and Utilities.

Variables	Best Estimate	Range (for sensitivity analysis)	Distribution	Reference
Rate of progression to ESRD	0.0076	0.00356–0.019	Lognormal	19
CKD stage 4 mortality	0.0097	0.00375–0.0279	Lognormal	19
Mortality on dialysis with CVC in first three months	0.042	0.0126–0.0503	Lognormal	27
Mortality on dialysis with CVC after three months	0.020	0.0126–0.0503	Lognormal	27
Mortality on dialysis with AVF in first three months	0.018	0.0061–0.0232	Lognormal	27
Mortality on dialysis with AVF after three months	0.013	0.0061–0.0232	Lognormal	27
Patient refusal for an AVF	0.0467	0.01–0.1	Beta	29
Central vein stenosis	0.017	0.001–0.05	Beta	29
Heart Failure due to AVF	0.0004	0.001–0.09	Lognormal	Expert opinion
Mortality due to heart failure	0.012	0.01–0.5	Beta	Expert Opinion
Surgical mortality	0.001	0.0001–0.005	Beta	Expert opinion
Ischemic steal syndrome	0.0504	0.001–0.09	Lognormal	29
AVF Failure: first three months	0.025	0–0.9	Lognormal	28
AVF Failure: after three months	0.016	0–0.9	Lognormal	28
AVF failure on dialysis	0.010	0–0.9	Lognormal	28
Utility of CKD stage 4 without AVF	0.62	0.40–0.84	Triangular	31
Utility of CKD stage 4 with AVF	0.62	0.40–0.84	Triangular	31
Utility of dialysis	0.51	0.20–0.82	Triangular	31