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. 2011 Dec 7;6(12):e28453. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0028453

Table 4. Probability Distributions and parameter estimates used in the Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis.

Variables Distribution Parameters
Rate of progression to ESRD Lognormal μ = −2.333;σ = 0.406
CKD stage 4 mortality Lognormal μ = −2.577;σ = 0.415
Mortality on dialysis with CVC in first three months Lognormal μ = −5.473;σ = 0.604
Mortality on dialysis with CVC after three months Lognormal μ = −6.215;σ = 0.759
Mortality on dialysis with AVF in first three months Lognormal μ = −6.320;σ = 0.901
Mortality on dialysis with AVF after three months Lognormal μ = −6.645;σ = 0.724
Patient refusal for an AVF Beta r = 28;n = 599
Central vein stenosis Beta r = 10;n = 599
Heart Failure due to AVF Lognormal μ = −9.210;σ: 0.601
Mortality due to heart failure Beta r = 5;n = 404
Surgical mortality Beta r = 1;n = 1000
Ischemic steal syndrome Lognormal μ = −2.987;σ = 0.768
AVF Failure: first three months Lognormal μ = −3.689;σ = 1.010
AVF Failure: after three months Lognormal μ = −4.135;σ = 0.970
AVF failure on dialysis Lognormal μ = −4.605;σ = 1.177
Utility of CKD stage 4 Triangular low = 0.40; most likely = 0.62; high = 0.84
Utility of dialysis Triangular low = 0.20; most Likely = 0.51; high = 0.82