Table 4.
Benefits and Harms of Screening Colonoscopy for Men
| Age | Comorb-idities | A Life expectancy (years) | B Reduction in colorectal cancer mortality from screening (per 100,000/year) | C Colonoscopy mortality rates (per 100,000) | D Pay-off time (years) | E Will average person live past pay-off time? | F Number of years alive past pay-off time | G Number of life-years saved (per 100,000 patients screened) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67-69 | ||||||||
| 0 | 15.1 | 62.4 | 15.4 | 5.2 | Yes | 10.0 | 1128 | |
| 1-2 | 11.1 | 57.9 | 23.1 | 5.3 | Yes | 5.8 | 519 | |
| ≥3 | 7.4 | 33.8 | 46.1 | 5.9 | Yes | 1.5 | 81 | |
| 70-74 | ||||||||
| 0 | 13.1 | 89.1 | 15.4 | 5.1 | Yes | 8.0 | 852 | |
| 1-2 | 9.7 | 76.9 | 23.1 | 5.3 | Yes | 4.5 | 382 | |
| ≥3 | 6.5 | 52.8 | 46.1 | 5.9 | Yes | 0.6 | 28 | |
| 75-79 | ||||||||
| 0 | 10.3 | 109.2 | 23.1 | 5.2 | Yes | 5.1 | 459 | |
| 1-2 | 7.7 | 89.9 | 34.6 | 5.4 | Yes | 2.3 | 139 | |
| ≥3 | 5.3 | 53.4 | 69.2 | 6.5 | No | -- | 0 | |
| 80-84 | ||||||||
| 0 | 7.9 | 116.9 | 30.7 | 5.3 | Yes | 2.6 | 232 | |
| 1-2 | 5.9 | 83.0 | 46.1 | 5.7 | Yes | 0.2 | 12 | |
| ≥3 | 4.3 | 46.9 | 92.2 | 7.6 | No | -- | 0 | |
| 85-94 | ||||||||
| 0 | 6.1 | 90.5 | 30.7 | 5.3 | Yes | 0.7 | 65 | |
| 1-2 | 4.6 | 61.6 | 46.1 | 5.7 | No | -- | 0 | |
| ≥3 | 3.5 | 36.0 | 92.2 | 7.6 | No | -- | 0 | |
A. Average life expectancy determined using life table approach
B. Colorectal cancer mortality rate among non-screened minus colorectal cancer mortality rate among screened patients; assumed to start 5 years after screening occurs
C. Estimated from Gatto et al.43
D. Number of years until the benefits of SC outweigh the risks
E. Does life expectancy exceed pay-off time?
F. Life expectancy minus pay-off time—indicates the number was not estimated because life expectancy does not exceed pay-off time