Table 5.
Prediction results of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in 2009.
| Date | ED revenue | Traumatic visit | Nontraumatic visit | Pediatric visit | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| True Value | Forecasted value | True value | Forecasted value | True value | Forecasted value | True value | Forecasted value | |
| Jan-09 | 4,767,559 | 3,676,314 | 584 | 472 | 1,415 | 826 | 1,204 | 551 |
| Feb-09 | 3,885,639 | 4,547,216 | 465 | 498 | 1,162 | 1,177 | 630 | 699 |
| Mar-09 | 3,419,070 | 3,529,467 | 597 | 535 | 1,090 | 857 | 595 | 719 |
| Apr-09 | 3,897,391 | 3,313,426 | 582 | 507 | 945 | 910 | 546 | 740 |
| May-09 | 3,804,037 | 2,158,604 | 572 | 502 | 962 | 862 | 613 | 712 |
| Jun-09 | 3,336,949 | 5,126,700 | 570 | 539 | 852 | 946 | 491 | 657 |
| Jul-09 | 3,642,391 | 5,576,091 | 599 | 575 | 903 | 845 | 476 | 560 |
| Aug-09 | 4,703,707 | 5,731,772 | 692 | 590 | 1,179 | 917 | 802 | 548 |
| Sep-09 | 5,058,538 | 5,787,666 | 675 | 625 | 1,366 | 1,047 | 1,324 | 787 |
|
| ||||||||
| MAPE | 22.61% (14.38%~29.73%) |
12.39% (10.16%~19.12%) |
19.59% (13.71%~41.61%) |
29.08% (5.73%~54.24%) |
||||
MAPE: mean absolute percentage of error.