Fig. 5.

MCMC sampling results in the space spanned by model parameters D and ρ, for the four experiments. Green samples are obtained from the sparse grid interpolation Eq. (12), blue-purple samples come from the direct sampling in Eq. (10). Black circles indicate means of the two distributions. Ground truth for A and B are indicated by the pink cross. In D the previously estimated speed of growth [16] is shown by the pink line. The sparse grid sampling approximation performs better than the direct MCMC (A–B). Estimates correlate well with results from [16], but provide a more accurate characterization of the state of disease (D).