Table 1.

Transition probability estimates from the literature with ranges used for sensitivity analyses

Transition probabilities	Baseline value	Range	References
Radiofrequency ablation
Post-procedure mortality	1%	1–3%
Decompensation	5%	3–10%	30,33–41
5-year survival	35%	15–50%
Annual HCC recurrence	50%	25–70%
Hepatic resection
Postoperative mortality	3%	1–7%
Decompensation	5%	3–10%	42–49
5-year survival	55%	40–70%
Annual HCC recurrence	20%	15–35%
Primary liver transplant
Waitlist dropout/death	20%	10–40%	24,42–48
Postoperative mortality	5%	3–8%
5-year survival	70%	60–80%
Salvage liver transplant
Waitlist dropout/death	10%	10–40%	24,39,42–48
Postoperative mortality	8%	3–10%
5-year survival	70%	60–80%
Cost, US$
Compensated cirrhosis/year	5 000	3 000–10 000
RFA	5 000	2 500–10 000
Hepatic resection	35 000	25 000–60 000	30,35,50,51
Post-RFA/resection care/year	3 500	1 000–5 000
Liver transplant	150 000	100 000–200 000
Post-OLT care/year	12 000	10 000–25 000
Utilities, QALY
Compensated cirrhosis	0.7	0.5–0.8
Post-RFA	0.7	0.5–0.8
Post-RFA recurrence	0.5	0.4–0.8	30,40,50–53
Post-resection	0.7	0.5–0.8
Post-resection recurrence	0.5	0.4–0.8
Post-liver transplant	0.8	0.6–0.9

HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; RFA, radiofrequency ablation; OLT, orthotopic liver transplantation; QALY, quality-adjusted life year