Table 1.
Transition probabilities | Baseline value | Range | References |
---|---|---|---|
Radiofrequency ablation | |||
Post-procedure mortality | 1% | 1–3% | |
Decompensation | 5% | 3–10% | 30,33–41 |
5-year survival | 35% | 15–50% | |
Annual HCC recurrence | 50% | 25–70% | |
Hepatic resection | |||
Postoperative mortality | 3% | 1–7% | |
Decompensation | 5% | 3–10% | 42–49 |
5-year survival | 55% | 40–70% | |
Annual HCC recurrence | 20% | 15–35% | |
Primary liver transplant | |||
Waitlist dropout/death | 20% | 10–40% | 24,42–48 |
Postoperative mortality | 5% | 3–8% | |
5-year survival | 70% | 60–80% | |
Salvage liver transplant | |||
Waitlist dropout/death | 10% | 10–40% | 24,39,42–48 |
Postoperative mortality | 8% | 3–10% | |
5-year survival | 70% | 60–80% | |
Cost, US$ | |||
Compensated cirrhosis/year | 5 000 | 3 000–10 000 | |
RFA | 5 000 | 2 500–10 000 | |
Hepatic resection | 35 000 | 25 000–60 000 | 30,35,50,51 |
Post-RFA/resection care/year | 3 500 | 1 000–5 000 | |
Liver transplant | 150 000 | 100 000–200 000 | |
Post-OLT care/year | 12 000 | 10 000–25 000 | |
Utilities, QALY | |||
Compensated cirrhosis | 0.7 | 0.5–0.8 | |
Post-RFA | 0.7 | 0.5–0.8 | |
Post-RFA recurrence | 0.5 | 0.4–0.8 | 30,40,50–53 |
Post-resection | 0.7 | 0.5–0.8 | |
Post-resection recurrence | 0.5 | 0.4–0.8 | |
Post-liver transplant | 0.8 | 0.6–0.9 |
HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; RFA, radiofrequency ablation; OLT, orthotopic liver transplantation; QALY, quality-adjusted life year