Table 1.

Hypothesized outcomes on cladogenic rates caused by major geological and climatic events documented in the region.

Abiotic event	Time period	Predictions and expectations	Reference
Establishment of freshwater systems in Chile	~ 9.0 Ma	Origins and initial diversification Basal nodes date to this period	[12,21]
Dramatic increase in sea-levels	4.3 - 5.3 Ma	Increased cladogenic events Significant shifts in cladogenic rates (Yule two rate or rate-variable birth-death)	[24]
Dramatic decrease in sea-levels	1.4 - 2.2 Ma	Decreased cladogenic events Significant shifts in cladogenic rates (Yule two rate or rate-variable birth-death)	[24]
Late Pleistocene climate oscillations (Driver of speciation)	1.0 - 0.1 Ma	Increase in cladogenic events Majority of cladogenic events date to this period & Significant shifts in cladogenic rates (Yule two rate or rate-variable birth-death)	[25,26]
Late Pleistocene climate oscillations (Increased extinction)	1.0 - 0.1 Ma	Decline in cladogenic rates Few cladogenic events date to this period & Decline in cladogenic rates (density dependent model [logistic or exponential] of diversification)	[25-27,53]
No impact	Throughout	No change in cladogenic rates Constant cladogenesis models: yule pure-birth or pure-birth