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. 2011 Dec 22;6(12):e29130. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0029130

Figure 1. Modelling prevalence given incidence.

Figure 1

An active TB case develops at Inline graphic, and remains active until Inline graphic. The probability that this case avoids death, self-cure or detection by routine services to remain active at Inline graphic is Inline graphic. In the presence of Inline graphic-periodic active case-finding (vertical lines) beginning at time Inline graphic, the case must also avoid detection by intersection with Inline graphic case-finding rounds (marked as filled circles), which occurs with probability Inline graphic.