Table 6.
Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals for Reservoir-to-human (λ0), Within-Prefecture Human-to-Human (λ1) and Across-Prefecture Human-to-Human (λ2) Transmission Forces Based on an Aggregate Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Model for the 2008–2009 HFMD outbreaks in China Combined.
| Type of Infection Source | Parameter | Assumption about Infectious Period
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1, 0. 2, 0)
|
(1, 0.5, 0)
|
(1, 0.6 , 0.2)
|
|||||
| Estimate | 95% CI | Estimate | 95% CI | Estimate | 95% CI | ||
| Local Reservoir | λ0(10−1) | 1.54 | 1.39, 1.70 | 1.56 | 1.41, 1.73 | 1.55 | 1.39, 1.72 |
| Human Cases | λ1(10−1) | 1.51 | 1.49, 1.53 | 1.19 | 1.18, 1.21 | 0.97 | 0.96, 0.98 |
| λ2(10−4) | 4.19 | 3.91, 4.50 | 3.17 | 2.94, 3.41 | 2.44 | 2.26, 2.64 | |