Table 1.
Variables and Sources
| Variable | Base Case (Range) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Susceptible | ||
| Population | 8,300,000 | New York Vital Statistics (3) |
| Age (range, years) | 0–100 | New York Vital Statistics (3) |
| Percent Female | 53 | New York Vital Statistics (3) |
| Pre-existing population immunity | 10% (0–20%) | MMWR (4) |
| Infected | ||
| R0 | 1.5 (1.2–1.8) | CDC(5), Fraser et al. (6), Pourbohloul et al. (7) |
| Impact of season on transmission | 0.2 (0–0.5) | Assumed |
| Non-pharmaceutical interventions reduction in contacts | 15% (0–70%) | Assumed, Davey et al. (8), Cowling et al.(9) |
| Number of infected individuals at start of pandemic | 10,000 (1,000–50,000) | NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (10), CDC(11–13) |
| Probability of symptomatic infection | 67% (50–90%) | Ferguson et al. (14), Longini et al. (15), Katz et al. (16), Dinh et al (17)., Vong et al. (18), Buxton Bridges et al. (19), Aparnthanarak et al (20)., Liem et al (21)., Wang et al. (22) |
| Reduced infectiousness by incubating | 50% (10–62.5%) | Hayden et a (23)., Wein et al. (24) |
| Reduced infectiousness by asymptomatic | 25% (10–50%) | Hayden et al (23)., Wein et al. (24) |
| Probability of isolating given symptomatic infection | 50% (37.5–62.5%) | Longini et al.(25) |
| Mean incubation time (days) | 3 (1–7) | Novel Swine-Origin Virus Investigation Team (26), CDC (27) |
| Mean duration of infectiousness (days) | 4 (3–7) | Hayden et al. (23), Leekha et al. (28) |
| Mean duration of symptomatic illness (days) | 10 (7.5–12.5) | CDC (29) |
| Proportion of symptomatic patients requiring inpatient care | 3.3% (1–10%) | CDC (30), HHS (31), MMWR (32) |
| Mean duration of non-ICU hospital stay (days) | 5 (3.75–6.25) | CDC (30) |
| Proportion of hospitalized patients requiring ICU care | 10% (7.5–12.5%) | CDC (30) |
| Mean duration of ICU stay (days) | 10 (7.5–12.5 ) | CDC (30) |
| Recovered | ||
| Susceptibility to re-infection following recovery | 5% (2–25%) | Smith et al. (33) Monto et al. (34) Sonoguchi et al (35). Davies et al.(36) |
| Timing of waning immunity (months) | 5 (2–8) | Smith et al. (33) Monto et al. (34) Sonoguchi et al (35). Davies et al. (36) |
| Dead | ||
| Case-fatality proportion | 0.1% (0.01%–1.0%) | Assumed, Pandemic (H1N1) case fatalities (27, 37) |
| Intervention Effectiveness | ||
| Adjuvanted two-dose vaccine | 80% (50–90%) | Assumed, Bridges et al. (38) |
| Vaccination side effects | ||
| Mild-moderate side-effects | 45% (5–75%) | Treanor et al. (39), Leroux-Roels et al. (40) |
| Severe side effects | 0.001% (0–0.01%) | Neustadt and Fineberg (41) |
| Risk of death from severe side effects | 5% (1–10%) | Chio et al. (42) |
| Risk of long-term care from severe side effects | 5% (1–10%) | Kissel et al. (43) |
| Vaccination side effects reduction in quality of life* | ||
| Mild-moderate side-effects | 0.05 (0–0.1) | Treanor et al. (39), Leroux-Roels et al. (40), CDC (44) |
| Severe side effects | 0.5 (0–1) | Neustadt and Fineberg (41) |
| Duration of mild-moderate side effects (days) | 2 (1–7) | Treanor et al. (39), Leroux-Roels et al. (40) |
| Duration of hospitalization for severe side effects (days) | 14 (7–28) | Chio et al. (42) |
| Influenza-related quality of life | ||
| Uninfected/Asymptomatic | 0.96 (0.92–1.00) | New York Census (3), Beaver Dam Health Outcomes (45) |
| Symptomatic Influenza | 0.8 (0.7–0.9) | Turner et al. (46) |
| Post-influenza disabled state for patients requiring ICU care | 0.9 (0.85–0.95) | Assumed |
| Costs | ||
| Vaccine | ||
| Antigen per μg ($) | 0.45 (0.15–0.70) | HHS (47) |
| Adjuvant ($) | 7.00 (5.25–8.75) | BARDA (personal communication – Michael Perdue) |
| μg adjuvant per vaccine | 15 (3.8–90) | HHS (48) |
| Administration | 8.73 (6.54–10.91) | Calculated: 10 minutes of nurse wages (49) |
| Patient Time | 10.55 (5.28–21.10) | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (50) |
| Daily health care costs ($) | ||
| Patient with severe side effects (treated in ICU) | 3,739.05 (2,804.29 – 4,673.82) | Desta et al. (51) |
| General medical hospitalized patient | 1,830.46 (1429.37–1870.54) | Talbird et al. (52) |
| ICU hospitalized patient | 3,739.05 (2,804.29 – 4,673.82) | Desta et al. (51) |
| Long-term treatment facility costs | 313.05 (234.79–391.31) | Metlife Survey (53) |
| Normal health care expenditures | 19.56 (14.67–24.45) | Statistical Abstract of the United States (54) |
| Other variables | ||
| Discount Rate (annual %) | 3 (0–5%) | Weinstein et al. (55) |
*
Quality of life variables represent a person’s preference for a given state of health and are scaled form 0 to 1, with 1 equivalent to perfect health.