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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2012 Jan 3.
Published in final edited form as: Ann Intern Med. 2009 Dec 15;151(12):829–839. doi: 10.1059/0003-4819-151-12-200912150-00157

Table 2.

Health outcomes assuming no vaccination for a city of 8.3 million individuals

VACCINATION IN OCTOBER VACCINATION IN NOVEMBER
R0 Symptomatic infections by October 15, 2009* Deaths to date* % vaccination to decrease widespread transmission† % still susceptible to infection Deaths averted following vaccination‡ Symptomatic infections by November 15, 2009 Deaths to date % vaccination to decrease widespread transmission % still susceptible to infection Deaths averted following vaccination
1.2 38,304 38 20% 89% 755 40,416 40 20% 89% 736
1.5 285,566 286 37% 85% 1,067 541,865 542 33% 80% 802
1.8 1,742,525 1,743 24% 59% 421 2,246,591 2,247 8% 50% 235
*

From a total population of 8,300,000 in target city

†

R0 ≤ 1 (by epidemiologic definitions, end of pandemic)

‡

At 12 months, compared to continuing with no vaccination