Table 2.
Odds ratios and betas for melanoma from the final multivariate prediction model.
| OR (95% CI) | Beta (log OR)a (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Male sex | 1.98 (1.48, 2.64) | 0.68 (0.39, 0.97) |
|
| ||
| Age in years | ||
|
| ||
| 35–44 | 1 | 0 |
|
| ||
| 45–54 | 1.69 (1.18, 2.43) | 0.53 (0.17, 0.89) |
| 55–64 | 2.24 (1.47, 3.40) | 0.81 (0.39, 1.23) |
| 65–74 | 2.92 (1.82, 4.68) | 1.07 (0.60, 1.54) |
|
| ||
| Number of severe sunburns ages | ||
| 2–18 | ||
| None | 1 | 0 |
|
| ||
| 1–4 | 1.10 (0.75, 1.60) | 0.09 (−0.29, 0.47) |
|
| ||
| 5–9 | 1.46 (0.92, 2.31) | 0.38 (−0.09, 0.84) |
|
| ||
| 10 or more | 2.07 (1.30, 3.29) | 0.73 (0.26, 1.19) |
| Natural hair color at age 15 | ||
| Dark brown or black | 1 | 0 |
|
| ||
| Light brown | 1.47 (1.02, 2.12) | 0.39 (0.02, 0.75) |
|
| ||
| Blond | 1.57 (1.09, 2.26) | 0.45 (0.08, 0.81) |
|
| ||
| Red | 2.23 (1.23, 4.05) | 0.80 (0.20, 1.40) |
| Density of freckles on arms before age 20 | ||
|
| ||
| None | 1 | 0 |
| Few | 1.56 (1.05, 2.31) | 0.44 (0.05, 0.84) |
| Several | 1.87 (1.15, 3.06) | 0.63 (0.14, 1.12) |
|
| ||
| A lot | 2.69 (1.71, 4.24) | 0.99 (0.54, 1.44) |
|
| ||
| Number of raised moles on both arms | ||
|
| ||
| None | 1 | 0 |
|
| ||
| 1 | 1.29 (0.87, 1.90) | 0.25 (−0.14, 0.64) |
|
| ||
| 2 | 1.67 (0.98, 2.84) | 0.51 (−0.02, 1.05) |
| 3 or more | 2.93 (2.03, 4.23) | 1.08 (0.71, 1.44) |
|
| ||
| Prior non-melanoma skin cancer | 3.81 (2.25, 6.47) | 1.34 (0.81, 1.87) |
a
The risk score was the sum of the products of the parameter estimates (betas, or log odds ratios) and the variable values, multiplied by 10 and rounded up or down as appropriate for ease of calculation