Table 4. Effects of the assumption of zero efficacy of incomplete vaccination courses.
Vaccine Deployment Modality | Median Relative Effectiveness of Vaccination (Minima, Maxima of 42 Simulations) | ||
Uncomplicated Episodes | Severe Episodes | Malaria-Related Mortality | |
EPI | 0.93 (0.83, 1.00) | 0.95 (0.65, 1.26) | 0.89 (0.54, 1.47) |
EPI with catch-up | 0.88 (0.81, 0.99) | 0.92 (0.70, 1.16) | 0.88 (0.60, 1.24) |
EPI with vaccination of school children | 0.77 (0.72, 0.86) | 0.91 (0.68, 1.12) | 0.91 (0.62, 1.65) |
EPI with vaccination of school children at low coverage | 0.72 (0.59, 0.90) | 0.87 (0.63, 1.33) | 0.85 (0.43, 1.50) |
Mass vaccination with high coverage | 0.64 (0.53, 0.68) | 0.57 (0.00, 1.92) | 0.58 (0.04, 1.00) |
Mass vaccination with low coverage | 0.28 (0.01, 0.34) | 0.24 (0.00, 1.57) | 0.28 (0.00, 1.50) |
The rows correspond to deployment strategies as defined in the main text. The relative effectiveness during the first 10 y of the program is computed as the proportion of events averted assuming zero efficacy of incomplete courses, divided by the proportion of events averted assuming the reference efficacy of incomplete courses. The minima and maxima are computed over all 14 models and three simulations for each model. All simulations refer to the 20-ibpa transmission setting.